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Trail Blazers at Pelicans

NBA · Friday, Jan 2 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final POR 122 – NO 109
← NBA / Jan 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR29342237122
NO37182034109
Team box
POR·NO
41-92
field goals
44-98
16-47
3-pointers
8-30
24-30
free throws
13-18
46
rebounds
42
27
assists
22
9
turnovers
15
46
points in paint
68
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Zion WilliamsonNO313582
Deni AvdijaPOR3834711
Shaedon SharpePOR312351
Caleb LovePOR282222
Jeremiah FearsNO291854
Jordan PooleNO301616

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +22
POR +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 10 · POR 22lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 56%, NO 44% · Updated Jan 2

Expected margin
POR by 3.0
Expected score
POR 118.9 – 115.9 NO
Expected total
234.8
Trail BlazersThe matchupPelicans
−128Our fair odds+128
118.9Expected points115.9
−0.24Power rating−0.72
116.2Points / game115.6
120.2Allowed / game123.1
44.7FG%46.1
33.73P%34.1
45.4Rebounds / game43.4
14−20Season record8−27
5−5Last 105−5
Blake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Jerami Grant · Jrue Holiday
Matisse ThybulleOut (5 each)Dejounte Murray · Derik Queen
Herbert Jones · Hunter Dickinson
Saddiq Bey

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · NO chance
Our model fair56.2%43.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers−12856%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+12844%————
SpreadPOR by 3.0
PORPortland Trail Blazers−3our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+3our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.8
Over234.8our total————
Under234.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Portland Trail Blazers by 3.0 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%
← POR wins byNO wins by →
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 5 or more48%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 10 or more33%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.8 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.569%
Total over 234.550%
Total over 244.531%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GShaedon Sharpestarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FKris Murraystarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GJordan Poolestarted
GBryce McGowensstarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
CYves Missistarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·NO
Dec 31, 2025 at OKC
last game
Dec 31, 2025 at CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 2, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORJerami Grant · left achilles;Out
PORJrue Holiday · right calf; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · right knee; tendinopathyOut
PORScoot Henderson · tendonitis left hamstring; tearOut
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NODerik Queen · left quad; contusionOut
NOHerbert Jones · right ankle; sprainOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOSaddiq Bey · right hip flexor; strainOut
NOTrey Murphy III · low back; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
POR·NO
−0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.72
116.2
points / game
115.6
120.2
points allowed / game
123.1
14−20
season record
8−27
7−9
home record
6−15
7−11
away record
2−12
L1
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
5−5
44.7
FG%
46.1
33.7
3P%
34.1
45.4
rebounds / game
43.4
24.6
assists / game
24.6
17.5
turnovers / game
14.3
48.6
points in paint / game
58.1

Rating Trend

POR · NO · 65 days
Portland Trail BlazersNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 6−4
Dec 11, 2025at NONO 143 − 120
Nov 12, 2025at NOPOR 125 − 117
Jan 8, 2025at NOPOR 119 − 100
Nov 4, 2024at NOPOR 118 − 100
Oct 27, 2024at PORPOR 125 − 103
Oct 25, 2024at PORNO 105 − 103
Apr 9, 2024at PORNO 110 − 100
Mar 16, 2024at NONO 126 − 107
Feb 10, 2024at PORNO 93 − 84
Mar 27, 2023at PORNO 124 − 90

POR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 31, 2025at OKC95 − 124L
Dec 29, 2025vs DAL125 − 122W
Dec 28, 2025vs BOS114 − 108W
Dec 26, 2025vs LAC103 − 119L
Dec 23, 2025vs ORL106 − 110L
Dec 22, 2025vs DET102 − 110L
Dec 20, 2025at SAC98 − 93W
Dec 18, 2025vs SAC134 − 133W
Dec 14, 2025vs GS136 − 131W
Dec 11, 2025at NO120 − 143L

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak L5
Dec 31, 2025at CHI118 − 134L
Dec 29, 2025vs NY125 − 130L
Dec 27, 2025vs PHX114 − 123L
Dec 26, 2025vs PHX108 − 115L
Dec 23, 2025at CLE118 − 141L
Dec 22, 2025vs DAL119 − 113W
Dec 20, 2025vs IND128 − 109W
Dec 18, 2025vs HOU133 − 128W
Dec 14, 2025at CHI114 − 104W
Dec 11, 2025vs POR143 − 120W