bayesRatings

Pelicans at Bulls

NBA · Wednesday, Dec 31 · 6:00 PM CT · United Center · Final NO 118 – CHI 134
← NBA / Dec 31, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO32302828118
CHI36313037134
Team box
NO·CHI
42-98
field goals
47-92
12-38
3-pointers
15-43
22-27
free throws
25-34
46
rebounds
49
25
assists
33
10
turnovers
9
56
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Zion WilliamsonNO293173
Jordan PooleNO262632
Isaac OkoroCHI362452
Tre JonesCHI2720212
Matas BuzelisCHI271962
Nikola VucevicCHI341785

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +17
NO +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 17 · NO 2lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 33%, CHI 67% · Updated Dec 31, 2025

Expected margin
CHI by 4.8
Expected score
CHI 123.3 – 118.5 NO
Expected total
241.8
PelicansThe matchupBulls
+200Our fair odds−200
118.5Expected points123.3
−0.72Power rating−0.25
115.5Points / game118.3
122.8Allowed / game122.4
46.2FG%47.2
34.13P%36.4
43.4Rebounds / game45.6
8−26Season record15−17
5−5Last 106−4
Dejounte Murray · Herbert Jones
Hunter Dickinson · Jose AlvaradoOutCoby White · Emanuel Miller
Josh Giddey · Lachlan Olbrich
Noa Essengue

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · CHI chance
Our model fair33.3%66.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+20033%————
CHIChicago Bulls−20067%————
SpreadCHI by 4.8
NONew Orleans Pelicans+4.8our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls−4.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 241.8
Over241.8our total————
Under241.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bulls by 4.8 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 46 points: <1%
← NO wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bulls wins by 5 or more53%
Chicago Bulls wins by 10 or more38%
Chicago Bulls wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

241.8 expected
191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 231.568%
Total over 241.549%
Total over 251.531%
Total from 232 to 25137%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted
Chicago Bulls
GTre Jonesstarted
FJalen Smithstarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
CNikola Vucevicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·CHI
Dec 29, 2025 vs NY
last game
Dec 29, 2025 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 31, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHerbert Jones · right ankle; sprainOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJose Alvarado · league suspensionOut
Chicago Bulls
CHICoby White · right calf; tightnessOut
CHIEmanuel Miller · right hamstring; strainOut
CHIJosh Giddey · left hamstring; tightnessOut
CHILachlan Olbrich · left ankle; sprainOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHITrentyn Flowers · right knee; hyperextensionOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
NO·CHI
−0.72
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
115.5
points / game
118.3
122.8
points allowed / game
122.4
8−26
season record
15−17
6−15
home record
8−8
2−11
away record
7−9
L4
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
6−4
46.2
FG%
47.2
34.1
3P%
36.4
43.4
rebounds / game
45.6
24.6
assists / game
29.3
14.4
turnovers / game
15.1
58.1
points in paint / game
54.8

Rating Trend

NO · CHI · 63 days
New Orleans PelicansChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 3−7
Dec 14, 2025at CHINO 114 − 104
Nov 24, 2025at NONO 143 − 130
Jan 14, 2025at CHINO 119 − 113
Oct 23, 2024at NONO 123 − 111
Feb 25, 2024at NOCHI 114 − 106
Dec 2, 2023at CHICHI 124 − 118
Nov 16, 2022at NONO 124 − 110
Nov 9, 2022at CHINO 115 − 111
Mar 24, 2022at NONO 126 − 109
Oct 22, 2021at CHICHI 128 − 112

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Dec 29, 2025vs NY125 − 130L
Dec 27, 2025vs PHX114 − 123L
Dec 26, 2025vs PHX108 − 115L
Dec 23, 2025at CLE118 − 141L
Dec 22, 2025vs DAL119 − 113W
Dec 20, 2025vs IND128 − 109W
Dec 18, 2025vs HOU133 − 128W
Dec 14, 2025at CHI114 − 104W
Dec 11, 2025vs POR143 − 120W
Dec 8, 2025vs SA132 − 135L

CHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Dec 29, 2025vs MIN101 − 136L
Dec 27, 2025vs MIL103 − 112L
Dec 26, 2025vs PHI109 − 102W
Dec 23, 2025at ATL126 − 123W
Dec 21, 2025at ATL152 − 150W
Dec 19, 2025at CLE136 − 125W
Dec 17, 2025vs CLE127 − 111W
Dec 14, 2025vs NO104 − 114L
Dec 12, 2025at CHA129 − 126W
Dec 7, 2025vs GS91 − 123L