bayesRatings

Timberwolves at Heat

NBA · Saturday, Jan 3 · 4:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final MIN 125 – MIA 115
← NBA / Jan 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN27293435125
MIA25253629115
Team box
MIN·MIA
46-85
field goals
41-87
11-38
3-pointers
14-37
22-25
free throws
19-22
40
rebounds
37
26
assists
27
14
turnovers
19
58
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony EdwardsMIN383335
Naz ReidMIN252943
Julius RandleMIN3923104
Norman PowellMIA252111
Davion MitchellMIA341436
Nikola JovicMIA281434

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +21
MIN +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 3 · MIN 21lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 57%, MIA 43% · Updated Jan 3

Expected margin
MIN by 1.6
Expected score
MIN 114.0 – 112.4 MIA
Expected total
226.3
TimberwolvesThe matchupHeat
−132Our fair odds+132
114.0Expected points112.4
+0.57Power rating+0.06
118.8Points / game120.9
114.6Allowed / game117.4
47.7FG%47.2
37.03P%36.5
44.2Rebounds / game45.9
21−13Season record19−15
6−4Last 105−5
Enrique Freeman · Joan Beringer
Rocco Zikarsky · Terrence Shannon Jr.OutJahmir Young · Keshad Johnson
Pelle Larsson · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · MIA chance
Our model fair56.8%43.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−13257%————
MIAMiami Heat+13243%————
SpreadMIN by 1.6
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−1.6our margin————
MIAMiami Heat+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.3
Over226.3our total————
Under226.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 1.6 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%
← MIN wins byMIA wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more44%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more30%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.3 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·MIA
Dec 31, 2025 at ATL
last game
Jan 1 at DET
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 3, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJoan Beringer · g league - on assignmentOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left foot; abductor hallucis strainOut
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAKeshad Johnson · g league - on assignmentOut
MIAPelle Larsson · right ankle; sprainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right big toe; contusionOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
MIN·MIA
+0.57
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
118.8
points / game
120.9
114.6
points allowed / game
117.4
21−13
season record
19−15
12−6
home record
12−5
9−7
away record
7−10
L1
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
5−5
47.7
FG%
47.2
37.0
3P%
36.5
44.2
rebounds / game
45.9
26.5
assists / game
28.7
14.2
turnovers / game
14.1
49.9
points in paint / game
55.6

Rating Trend

MIN · MIA · 66 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIA 2−6
Mar 7, 2025at MIAMIN 106 − 104
Nov 10, 2024at MINMIA 95 − 94
Dec 18, 2023at MIAMIN 112 − 108
Oct 28, 2023at MINMIN 106 − 90
Dec 26, 2022at MIAMIA 113 − 110
Nov 21, 2022at MINMIN 105 − 101
Mar 12, 2022at MIAMIN 113 − 104
Nov 24, 2021at MINMIN 113 − 101

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 31, 2025at ATL102 − 126L
Dec 29, 2025at CHI136 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025vs BKN107 − 123L
Dec 25, 2025at DEN138 − 142L
Dec 23, 2025vs NY115 − 104W
Dec 21, 2025vs MIL103 − 100W
Dec 19, 2025vs OKC112 − 107W
Dec 17, 2025vs MEM110 − 116L
Dec 14, 2025vs SAC117 − 103W
Dec 12, 2025at GS127 − 120W

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Jan 1at DET118 − 112W
Dec 29, 2025vs DEN147 − 123W
Dec 27, 2025vs IND142 − 116W
Dec 26, 2025at ATL126 − 111W
Dec 23, 2025vs TOR91 − 112L
Dec 21, 2025at NY125 − 132L
Dec 19, 2025at BOS116 − 129L
Dec 18, 2025at BKN106 − 95W
Dec 15, 2025vs TOR96 − 106L
Dec 9, 2025at ORL108 − 117L