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Hawks at Raptors

NBA · Monday, Jan 5 · 6:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final ATL 100 – TOR 118
← NBA / Jan 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL26232427100
TOR31302532118
Team box
ATL·TOR
35-89
field goals
47-90
12-34
3-pointers
12-37
18-21
free throws
12-19
46
rebounds
46
28
assists
34
15
turnovers
15
44
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon IngramTOR351993
Scottie BarnesTOR3718810
Onyeka OkongwuATL3617123
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR311777
RJ BarrettTOR311764
Zaccharie RisacherATL221644

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +18
ATL +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 18 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 44%, TOR 56% · Updated Jan 5

Expected margin
TOR by 1.7
Expected score
TOR 118.4 – 116.7 ATL
Expected total
235.1
HawksThe matchupRaptors
+126Our fair odds−126
116.7Expected points118.4
−0.20Power rating−0.19
119.0Points / game114.4
119.9Allowed / game112.6
48.2FG%47.5
36.93P%35.2
41.6Rebounds / game43.4
17−20Season record21−15
2−8Last 106−4
Malik Williams · N'Faly Dante
Nikola Djurisic · RayJ Dennis
Trae YoungOutAlijah Martin · Chucky Hepburn
Jakob Poeltl

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair44.2%55.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+12644%————
TORToronto Raptors−12656%————
SpreadTOR by 1.7
ATLAtlanta Hawks+1.7our margin————
TORToronto Raptors−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.1
Over235.1our total————
Under235.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 1.7 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%
← ATL wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more45%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more31%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

235.1 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.567%
Total over 235.548%
Total over 245.529%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
FCollin Murray-Boylesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·TOR
Jan 3 at TOR
last game
Jan 3 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 5, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLMalik Williams · g league - two-wayOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLTrae Young · right quad; contusionOut
ATLLuke Kennard · back; sorenessQuestionable
Toronto Raptors
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJakob Poeltl · back; lower - strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
ATL·TOR
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
119.0
points / game
114.4
119.9
points allowed / game
112.6
17−20
season record
21−15
6−11
home record
11−8
11−9
away record
10−7
L1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
6−4
48.2
FG%
47.5
36.9
3P%
35.2
41.6
rebounds / game
43.4
31.3
assists / game
29.3
15.1
turnovers / game
14.3
52.6
points in paint / game
52.1

Rating Trend

ATL · TOR · 68 days
Atlanta HawksToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 7−3
Jan 3at TORTOR 134 − 117
Nov 7, 2025at ATLTOR 109 − 97
Oct 22, 2025at ATLTOR 138 − 118
Jan 25, 2025at ATLTOR 117 − 94
Jan 23, 2025at ATLTOR 122 − 119
Dec 29, 2024at TORATL 136 − 107
Feb 23, 2024at ATLTOR 123 − 121
Jan 28, 2024at ATLATL 126 − 125
Dec 15, 2023at TORATL 125 − 104
Dec 13, 2023at TORTOR 135 − 128

ATL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Jan 3at TOR117 − 134L
Jan 2at NY111 − 99W
Dec 31, 2025vs MIN126 − 102W
Dec 29, 2025at OKC129 − 140L
Dec 27, 2025vs NY125 − 128L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIA111 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs CHI123 − 126L
Dec 21, 2025vs CHI150 − 152L
Dec 19, 2025vs SA98 − 126L
Dec 18, 2025at CHA126 − 133L

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 3vs ATL134 − 117W
Dec 31, 2025vs DEN103 − 106L
Dec 29, 2025vs ORL107 − 106W
Dec 28, 2025vs GS141 − 127W
Dec 26, 2025at WSH117 − 138L
Dec 23, 2025at MIA112 − 91W
Dec 21, 2025at BKN81 − 96L
Dec 20, 2025vs BOS96 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025at MIL111 − 105W
Dec 15, 2025at MIA106 − 96W