bayesRatings

Magic at Raptors

NBA · Monday, Dec 29 · 6:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final ORL 106 – TOR 107
← NBA / Dec 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL29362912106
TOR18363023107
Team box
ORL·TOR
37-91
field goals
39-99
9-32
3-pointers
8-34
23-27
free throws
21-29
52
rebounds
58
25
assists
22
8
turnovers
6
42
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony BlackORL322733
Paolo BancheroORL38231510
Jamal SheadTOR291945
Desmond BaneORL301863
Brandon IngramTOR341794
Gradey DickTOR151510

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +21
ORL +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 3 · ORL 21lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 53%, TOR 47% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
ORL by 0.6
Expected score
ORL 109.1 – 108.5 TOR
Expected total
217.6
MagicThe matchupRaptors
−112Our fair odds+112
109.1Expected points108.5
+0.10Power rating−0.25
117.1Points / game114.4
115.3Allowed / game112.9
46.8FG%47.9
33.73P%35.7
44.6Rebounds / game42.6
18−14Season record19−14
5−5Last 104−6
Colin Castleton · Franz Wagner
Moritz WagnerOutJakob Poeltl · RJ Barrett

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair52.9%47.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic−11253%————
TORToronto Raptors+11247%————
SpreadORL by 0.6
ORLOrlando Magic−0.6our margin————
TORToronto Raptors+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 217.6
Over217.6our total————
Under217.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 0.6 expected
Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%
← ORL wins byTOR wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more41%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more28%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

217.6 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 207.570%
Total over 217.550%
Total over 227.530%
Total from 208 to 22739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GTyus Jonesstarted
GDesmond Banestarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
GOchai Agbajistarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FSandro Mamukelashvilistarted
FScottie Barnesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·TOR
Dec 27, 2025 vs DEN
last game
Dec 28, 2025 vs GS
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 29, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprainOut
ORLMoritz Wagner · left knee; injury recoveryOut
ORLJalen Suggs · left hip; contusionDoubtful
ORLGoga Bitadze · left knee; strainQuestionable
Toronto Raptors
TORJakob Poeltl · back; lower; strainOut
TORRJ Barrett · right knee; sprain - injury managementOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · illness; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
ORL·TOR
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
117.1
points / game
114.4
115.3
points allowed / game
112.9
18−14
season record
19−14
11−6
home record
9−7
7−8
away record
10−7
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
46.8
FG%
47.9
33.7
3P%
35.7
44.6
rebounds / game
42.6
26.0
assists / game
29.6
14.0
turnovers / game
14.8
54.2
points in paint / game
51.9

Rating Trend

ORL · TOR · 61 days
Orlando MagicToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
Mar 4, 2025at ORLTOR 114 − 113
Mar 2, 2025at ORLTOR 104 − 102
Jan 21, 2025at TORTOR 109 − 93
Jan 3, 2025at TORORL 106 − 97
Mar 17, 2024at ORLORL 111 − 96
Mar 15, 2024at TORORL 113 − 103
Nov 21, 2023at ORLORL 126 − 107
Feb 14, 2023at TORTOR 123 − 113
Dec 11, 2022at ORLORL 111 − 99
Dec 9, 2022at ORLORL 113 − 109

ORL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 27, 2025vs DEN127 − 126W
Dec 26, 2025vs CHA105 − 120L
Dec 23, 2025at POR110 − 106W
Dec 22, 2025at GS97 − 120L
Dec 20, 2025at UTAH128 − 127W
Dec 18, 2025at DEN115 − 126L
Dec 13, 2025vs NY120 − 132L
Dec 9, 2025vs MIA117 − 108W
Dec 7, 2025at NY100 − 106L
Dec 5, 2025vs MIA106 − 105W

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 28, 2025vs GS141 − 127W
Dec 26, 2025at WSH117 − 138L
Dec 23, 2025at MIA112 − 91W
Dec 21, 2025at BKN81 − 96L
Dec 20, 2025vs BOS96 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025at MIL111 − 105W
Dec 15, 2025at MIA106 − 96W
Dec 9, 2025vs NY101 − 117L
Dec 7, 2025vs BOS113 − 121L
Dec 5, 2025vs CHA86 − 111L