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Nuggets at Raptors

NBA · Wednesday, Dec 31 · 6:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final DEN 106 – TOR 103
← NBA / Dec 31, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN32312221106
TOR23312524103
Team box
DEN·TOR
34-80
field goals
37-100
10-34
3-pointers
12-45
28-34
free throws
17-21
47
rebounds
50
17
assists
27
11
turnovers
8
42
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon IngramTOR363081
Peyton WatsonDEN362480
Immanuel QuickleyTOR342234
Jamal MurrayDEN382176
Scottie BarnesTOR33201410
Jonas ValanciunasDEN231794

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +13
DEN +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 4 · DEN 13lead changes: 16

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 63%, TOR 37% · Updated Dec 31, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 4.1
Expected score
DEN 119.0 – 114.9 TOR
Expected total
233.9
NuggetsThe matchupRaptors
−167Our fair odds+167
119.0Expected points114.9
+0.56Power rating−0.19
125.7Points / game114.1
118.5Allowed / game112.7
51.5FG%47.6
40.23P%35.4
44.0Rebounds / game43.0
22−10Season record20−14
6−4Last 105−5
Aaron Gordon · Cameron Johnson
Christian Braun · Nikola Jokic
Tamar BatesOutA.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Jakob Poeltl

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · TOR chance
Our model fair62.5%37.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−16763%————
TORToronto Raptors+16737%————
SpreadDEN by 4.1
DENDenver Nuggets−4.1our margin————
TORToronto Raptors+4.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.9
Over233.9our total————
Under233.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 4.1 expected
Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%
← DEN wins byTOR wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more51%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more36%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.9 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.569%
Total over 233.550%
Total over 243.531%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GJalen Pickettstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CJonas Valanciunasstarted
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
GOchai Agbajistarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·TOR
Dec 29, 2025 at MIA
last game
Dec 29, 2025 vs ORL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 30, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; injury managementOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; injury managementOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENJulian Strawther · illness; illnessProbable
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJakob Poeltl · back; lower - strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
DEN·TOR
+0.56
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
125.7
points / game
114.1
118.5
points allowed / game
112.7
22−10
season record
20−14
10−5
home record
10−7
12−5
away record
10−7
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
51.5
FG%
47.6
40.2
3P%
35.4
44.0
rebounds / game
43.0
29.7
assists / game
29.4
13.4
turnovers / game
14.5
52.8
points in paint / game
52.1

Rating Trend

DEN · TOR · 63 days
Denver NuggetsToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · TOR 2−6
Nov 4, 2024at DENDEN 121 − 119
Oct 28, 2024at TORDEN 127 − 125
Mar 11, 2024at DENDEN 125 − 119
Dec 20, 2023at TORDEN 113 − 104
Mar 14, 2023at TORTOR 125 − 110
Mar 6, 2023at DENDEN 118 − 113
Mar 12, 2022at DENTOR 127 − 115
Feb 12, 2022at TORDEN 110 − 109

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Dec 29, 2025at MIA123 − 147L
Dec 27, 2025at ORL126 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025vs MIN142 − 138W
Dec 23, 2025at DAL130 − 131L
Dec 22, 2025vs UTAH135 − 112W
Dec 20, 2025vs HOU101 − 115L
Dec 18, 2025vs ORL126 − 115W
Dec 15, 2025vs HOU128 − 125W
Dec 11, 2025at SAC136 − 105W
Dec 7, 2025at CHA115 − 106W

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Dec 29, 2025vs ORL107 − 106W
Dec 28, 2025vs GS141 − 127W
Dec 26, 2025at WSH117 − 138L
Dec 23, 2025at MIA112 − 91W
Dec 21, 2025at BKN81 − 96L
Dec 20, 2025vs BOS96 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025at MIL111 − 105W
Dec 15, 2025at MIA106 − 96W
Dec 9, 2025vs NY101 − 117L
Dec 7, 2025vs BOS113 − 121L