bayesRatings

Nets at Grizzlies

NBA · Sunday, Jan 11 · 2:30 PM CT · FedExForum · Final BKN 98 – MEM 103
← NBA / Jan 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BKN2327242498
MEM34271626103
Team box
BKN·MEM
36-88
field goals
37-88
18-48
3-pointers
11-34
8-16
free throws
18-18
43
rebounds
54
25
assists
27
10
turnovers
15
34
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cedric CowardMEM272181
Noah ClowneyBKN301761
Tyrese MartinBKN211731
Jock LandaleMEM281691
Santi AldamaMEM331583
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM301452

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +16
BKN +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 16 · BKN 8lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BKN 30%, MEM 70% · Updated Jan 11

Expected margin
MEM by 7.2
Expected score
MEM 115.7 – 108.5 BKN
Expected total
224.2
NetsThe matchupGrizzlies
+231Our fair odds−231
108.5Expected points115.7
−0.62Power rating+0.00
109.1Points / game115.2
114.2Allowed / game116.7
44.9FG%45.5
34.43P%34.6
39.9Rebounds / game46.4
11−24Season record16−22
4−6Last 103−7
Ben Saraf · Chaney Johnson
Drake Powell · E.J. Liddell
Haywood HighsmithOut (5 each)Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Jahmai Mashack · Javon Small
Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BKN chance · MEM chance
Our model fair30.2%69.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BKNBrooklyn Nets+23130%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−23170%————
SpreadMEM by 7.2
BKNBrooklyn Nets+7.2our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−7.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.2
Over224.2our total————
Under224.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 7.2 expected
Brooklyn Nets by 49 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 48 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 47 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 49 points: <1%
← BKN wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more59%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more44%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.2 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.569%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.529%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GEgor Deminstarted
FNoah Clowneystarted
FDanny Wolfstarted
CNic Claxtonstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GCam Spencerstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BKN·MEM
Jan 9 vs LAC
last game
Jan 9 vs OKC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 11, 5:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets
BKNBen Saraf · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNChaney Johnson · g league - two-wayOut
BKNDrake Powell · left knee; injury managementOut
BKNE.J. Liddell · g league - two-wayOut
BKNHaywood Highsmith · right knee; surgery, injury recoveryOut
BKNMichael Porter Jr. · restOut
BKNTyson Etienne · g league - two-wayOut
BKNZiaire Williams · n/a; illnessOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · right calf; contusonOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · g league - two-wayOut
MEMJavon Small · g league - two-wayOut
MEMOlivier-Maxence Prosper · g league - two-wayOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
BKN·MEM
−0.62
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
109.1
points / game
115.2
114.2
points allowed / game
116.7
11−24
season record
16−22
5−15
home record
8−11
6−9
away record
8−11
L2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
3−7
44.9
FG%
45.5
34.4
3P%
34.6
39.9
rebounds / game
46.4
25.4
assists / game
29.1
15.7
turnovers / game
15.4
42.6
points in paint / game
49.6

Rating Trend

BKN · MEM · 74 days
Brooklyn NetsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MEM 5−4
Dec 13, 2024at MEMMEM 135 − 119
Nov 4, 2024at BKNBKN 106 − 104
Oct 30, 2024at MEMBKN 119 − 106
Mar 4, 2024at BKNMEM 106 − 102
Feb 26, 2024at MEMBKN 111 − 86
Nov 20, 2022at BKNBKN 127 − 115
Oct 24, 2022at MEMMEM 134 − 124
Mar 23, 2022at MEMMEM 132 − 120
Jan 3, 2022at BKNMEM 118 − 104

BKN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jan 9vs LAC105 − 121L
Jan 7vs ORL103 − 104L
Jan 4vs DEN127 − 115W
Jan 2at WSH99 − 119L
Jan 1vs HOU96 − 120L
Dec 29, 2025vs GS107 − 120L
Dec 27, 2025at MIN123 − 107W
Dec 23, 2025at PHI114 − 106W
Dec 21, 2025vs TOR96 − 81W
Dec 18, 2025vs MIA95 − 106L

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jan 9vs OKC116 − 117L
Jan 7vs PHX98 − 117L
Jan 6vs SA106 − 105W
Jan 4at LAL114 − 120L
Jan 2at LAL121 − 128L
Dec 30, 2025vs PHI136 − 139L
Dec 28, 2025at WSH112 − 116L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIL125 − 104W
Dec 23, 2025at UTAH137 − 128W
Dec 22, 2025at OKC103 − 119L