bayesRatings

Nets at Wizards

NBA · Friday, Jan 2 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final BKN 99 – WSH 119

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BKN2426232699
WSH37273223119
Team box
BKN·WSH
34-86
field goals
47-92
6-29
3-pointers
11-29
25-28
free throws
14-16
33
rebounds
51
20
assists
24
16
turnovers
19
52
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Justin ChampagnieWSH252070
Alex SarrWSH291954
CJ McCollumWSH311763
Day'Ron SharpeBKN301493
Terance MannBKN241432
Ziaire WilliamsBKN241411

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +28
BKN +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 28 · BKN 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BKN 60%, WSH 40% · Updated Jan 2

Expected margin
BKN by 5.3
Expected score
BKN 115.0 – 109.7 WSH
Expected total
224.7
NetsThe matchupWizards
−148Our fair odds+148
115.0Expected points109.7
−0.62Power rating−1.25
109.2Points / game113.2
114.1Allowed / game124.7
45.1FG%46.1
34.73P%36.0
39.9Rebounds / game44.3
10−21Season record8−24
5−5Last 105−5
Ben Saraf · Cam Thomas
Chaney Johnson · Haywood Highsmith
Michael Porter Jr.
OutCam Whitmore · Corey Kispert
Kyshawn George

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BKN chance · WSH chance
Our model fair59.7%40.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BKNBrooklyn Nets−14860%————
WSHWashington Wizards+14840%————
SpreadBKN by 5.3
BKNBrooklyn Nets−5.3our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+5.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.7
Over224.7our total————
Under224.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Brooklyn Nets by 5.3 expected
Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 3%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%
← BKN wins byWSH wins by →
Brooklyn Nets wins by 5 or more55%
Brooklyn Nets wins by 10 or more39%
Brooklyn Nets wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.7 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.570%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GEgor Deminstarted
FNoah Clowneystarted
FDanny Wolfstarted
Washington Wizards
GCJ McCollumstarted
GTre Johnsonstarted
CAlex Sarrstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BKN·WSH
Jan 1 vs HOU
last game
Dec 31, 2025 at MIL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 2, 5:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets
BKNBen Saraf · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNCam Thomas · left hamstring; injury managementOut
BKNChaney Johnson · g league - two-wayOut
BKNHaywood Highsmith · right knee; surgery, injury recoveryOut
BKNMichael Porter Jr. · n/a; illnessOut
BKNNic Claxton · personal reasonsOut
BKNTyson Etienne · g league - two-wayOut
BKNTerance Mann · right hip; contusionProbable
Washington Wizards
WSHCam Whitmore · right shoulder; deep vein thrombosisOut
WSHCorey Kispert · left hamstring; strainOut
WSHKyshawn George · left hip flexor; strainOut
WSHTristan Vukcevic · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
BKN·WSH
−0.62
rating (0 = average)
−1.25
109.2
points / game
113.2
114.1
points allowed / game
124.7
10−21
season record
8−24
4−13
home record
4−11
6−8
away record
4−13
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
45.1
FG%
46.1
34.7
3P%
36.0
39.9
rebounds / game
44.3
25.5
assists / game
25.5
15.9
turnovers / game
15.3
42.2
points in paint / game
46.6

Rating Trend

BKN · WSH · 65 days
Brooklyn NetsWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Nov 16, 2025at WSHBKN 129 − 106
Mar 29, 2025at WSHBKN 115 − 112
Feb 24, 2025at WSHWSH 107 − 99
Feb 5, 2025at BKNWSH 119 − 102
Mar 27, 2024at WSHBKN 122 − 119
Dec 29, 2023at WSHWSH 110 − 104
Dec 8, 2023at BKNBKN 124 − 97
Nov 12, 2023at BKNBKN 102 − 94
Feb 4, 2023at BKNBKN 125 − 123
Dec 12, 2022at WSHBKN 112 − 100

BKN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jan 1vs HOU96 − 120L
Dec 29, 2025vs GS107 − 120L
Dec 27, 2025at MIN123 − 107W
Dec 23, 2025at PHI114 − 106W
Dec 21, 2025vs TOR96 − 81W
Dec 18, 2025vs MIA95 − 106L
Dec 14, 2025vs MIL127 − 82W
Dec 12, 2025at DAL111 − 119L
Dec 6, 2025vs NO119 − 101W
Dec 4, 2025vs UTAH110 − 123L

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 31, 2025at MIL114 − 113W
Dec 29, 2025vs PHX101 − 115L
Dec 28, 2025vs MEM116 − 112W
Dec 26, 2025vs TOR138 − 117W
Dec 23, 2025at CHA109 − 126L
Dec 21, 2025vs SA113 − 124L
Dec 20, 2025at MEM130 − 122W
Dec 18, 2025at SA94 − 119L
Dec 14, 2025at IND108 − 89W
Dec 12, 2025vs CLE126 − 130L