bayesRatings

Rockets at Nets

NBA · Thursday, Jan 1 · 5:00 PM CT · Barclays Center · Final HOU 120 – BKN 96
← NBA / Jan 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU26273730120
BKN2022252996
Team box
HOU·BKN
47-82
field goals
34-76
12-29
3-pointers
10-30
14-18
free throws
18-30
45
rebounds
27
28
assists
18
14
turnovers
13
52
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Amen ThompsonHOU322343
Kevin DurantHOU3722511
Cam ThomasBKN232111
Alperen SengunHOU342066
Tari EasonHOU221590
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU321461

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BKN +26
HOU +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BKN 0 · HOU 26lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 73%, BKN 27% · Updated Jan 1

Expected margin
HOU by 8.3
Expected score
HOU 113.5 – 105.1 BKN
Expected total
218.6
RocketsThe matchupNets
−266Our fair odds+266
113.5Expected points105.1
+0.61Power rating−0.62
120.5Points / game109.7
112.0Allowed / game113.9
49.4FG%45.1
40.13P%34.8
48.8Rebounds / game40.3
20−10Season record10−20
5−5Last 106−4
Clint Capela · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · Steven Adams
Tyler SmithOut (5 each)Ben Saraf · Chaney Johnson
E.J. Liddell · Egor Demin
Haywood Highsmith

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · BKN chance
Our model fair72.7%27.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−26673%————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+26627%————
SpreadHOU by 8.3
HOUHouston Rockets−8.3our margin————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+8.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 218.6
Over218.6our total————
Under218.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 8.3 expected
Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 47 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 48 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 49 points: <1%
← HOU wins byBKN wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more64%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more47%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

218.6 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 208.570%
Total over 218.550%
Total over 228.530%
Total from 209 to 22839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Brooklyn Nets
GDrake Powellstarted
FZiaire Williamsstarted
FNoah Clowneystarted
FDanny Wolfstarted
CNic Claxtonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·BKN
Dec 29, 2025 vs IND
last game
Dec 29, 2025 vs GS
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 1, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUClint Capela · n/a; illnessOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUSteven Adams · right ankle; sprainOut
HOUTyler Smith · g league - two-wayOut
HOUAlperen Sengun · left soleus; strainQuestionable
Brooklyn Nets
BKNBen Saraf · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNChaney Johnson · g league - two-wayOut
BKNE.J. Liddell · g league - two-wayOut
BKNEgor Demin · lower back; sorenessOut
BKNHaywood Highsmith · right knee; surgery, injury recoveryOut
BKNMichael Porter Jr. · n/a; illnessOut
BKNTerance Mann · right hip; contusionOut
BKNTyson Etienne · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
HOU·BKN
+0.61
rating (0 = average)
−0.62
120.5
points / game
109.7
112.0
points allowed / game
113.9
20−10
season record
10−20
10−2
home record
4−12
10−8
away record
6−8
W3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
49.4
FG%
45.1
40.1
3P%
34.8
48.8
rebounds / game
40.3
25.6
assists / game
25.8
16.3
turnovers / game
16.0
54.5
points in paint / game
42.1

Rating Trend

HOU · BKN · 64 days
Houston RocketsBrooklyn Nets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · BKN 6−3
Oct 27, 2025at HOUHOU 137 − 109
Feb 4, 2025at BKNBKN 99 − 97
Feb 1, 2025at HOUBKN 110 − 98
Jan 27, 2024at BKNBKN 106 − 104
Jan 3, 2024at HOUHOU 112 − 101
Mar 29, 2023at BKNBKN 123 − 114
Mar 7, 2023at HOUBKN 118 − 96
Apr 5, 2022at BKNBKN 118 − 105
Dec 8, 2021at HOUHOU 114 − 104

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Dec 29, 2025vs IND126 − 119W
Dec 27, 2025vs CLE117 − 100W
Dec 25, 2025at LAL119 − 96W
Dec 23, 2025at LAC108 − 128L
Dec 21, 2025at SAC124 − 125L
Dec 20, 2025at DEN115 − 101W
Dec 18, 2025at NO128 − 133L
Dec 15, 2025at DEN125 − 128L
Dec 11, 2025vs LAC115 − 113W
Dec 6, 2025at DAL109 − 122L

BKN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 29, 2025vs GS107 − 120L
Dec 27, 2025at MIN123 − 107W
Dec 23, 2025at PHI114 − 106W
Dec 21, 2025vs TOR96 − 81W
Dec 18, 2025vs MIA95 − 106L
Dec 14, 2025vs MIL127 − 82W
Dec 12, 2025at DAL111 − 119L
Dec 6, 2025vs NO119 − 101W
Dec 4, 2025vs UTAH110 − 123L
Dec 3, 2025at CHI113 − 103W