bayesRatings

Pacers at Rockets

NBA · Monday, Dec 29 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final IND 119 – HOU 126
← NBA / Dec 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND25233041119
HOU30363921126
Team box
IND·HOU
44-88
field goals
49-83
18-34
3-pointers
10-27
13-20
free throws
18-24
29
rebounds
50
30
assists
21
9
turnovers
19
46
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU343065
Pascal SiakamIND312344
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU3421102
Amen ThompsonHOU372087
Bennedict MathurinIND261434
Aaron NesmithIND241433

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +28
IND +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 28 · IND 2lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 29%, HOU 71% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 8.6
Expected score
HOU 118.3 – 109.7 IND
Expected total
228.0
PacersThe matchupRockets
+248Our fair odds−248
109.7Expected points118.3
−0.10Power rating+0.59
109.8Points / game120.3
119.2Allowed / game111.7
43.5FG%49.1
32.53P%40.2
43.5Rebounds / game48.8
6−26Season record19−10
2−8Last 105−5
Ben Sheppard · Isaiah Jackson
Obi Toppin · Tyrese HaliburtonOut (4 each)Alperen Sengun · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · Tyler Smith

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · HOU chance
Our model fair28.7%71.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+24829%————
HOUHouston Rockets−24871%————
SpreadHOU by 8.6
INDIndiana Pacers+8.6our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−8.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.0
Over228.0our total————
Under228.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 8.6 expected
Indiana Pacers by 51 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 50 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%
← IND wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more63%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more48%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.548%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CSteven Adamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·HOU
Dec 27, 2025 at MIA
last game
Dec 27, 2025 vs CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 29, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDBen Sheppard · soreness left calf; strainOut
INDIsaiah Jackson · n/a; concussionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
Houston Rockets
HOUAlperen Sengun · left soleus; strainOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUTyler Smith · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
IND·HOU
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.59
109.8
points / game
120.3
119.2
points allowed / game
111.7
6−26
season record
19−10
5−12
home record
9−2
1−14
away record
10−8
L8
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
5−5
43.5
FG%
49.1
32.5
3P%
40.2
43.5
rebounds / game
48.8
23.7
assists / game
25.8
14.2
turnovers / game
16.2
44.7
points in paint / game
54.5

Rating Trend

IND · HOU · 61 days
Indiana PacersHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · HOU 1−7
Mar 4, 2025at INDIND 115 − 102
Nov 20, 2024at HOUHOU 130 − 113
Feb 6, 2024at INDIND 132 − 129
Dec 26, 2023at HOUIND 123 − 117
Mar 9, 2023at INDIND 134 − 125
Nov 18, 2022at HOUIND 99 − 91
Mar 18, 2022at HOUIND 121 − 118
Dec 23, 2021at INDIND 118 − 106

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak L8
Dec 27, 2025at MIA116 − 142L
Dec 26, 2025vs BOS122 − 140L
Dec 23, 2025vs MIL94 − 111L
Dec 22, 2025at BOS95 − 103L
Dec 20, 2025at NO109 − 128L
Dec 18, 2025vs NY113 − 114L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH89 − 108L
Dec 12, 2025at PHI105 − 115L
Dec 8, 2025vs SAC116 − 105W
Dec 5, 2025at CHI120 − 105W

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Dec 27, 2025vs CLE117 − 100W
Dec 25, 2025at LAL119 − 96W
Dec 23, 2025at LAC108 − 128L
Dec 21, 2025at SAC124 − 125L
Dec 20, 2025at DEN115 − 101W
Dec 18, 2025at NO128 − 133L
Dec 15, 2025at DEN125 − 128L
Dec 11, 2025vs LAC115 − 113W
Dec 6, 2025at DAL109 − 122L
Dec 5, 2025vs PHX117 − 98W