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Thunder at Grizzlies

NBA · Friday, Jan 9 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final OKC 117 – MEM 116
← NBA / Jan 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC25213536117
MEM35302922116
Team box
OKC·MEM
43-91
field goals
41-88
9-37
3-pointers
14-41
22-28
free throws
20-24
36
rebounds
52
24
assists
35
6
turnovers
17
62
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen WilliamsOKC3626510
Ajay MitchellOKC382336
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM322371
Kenrich WilliamsOKC292180
GG JacksonMEM211820
Aaron WigginsOKC321671

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +21
OKC +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 21 · OKC 5lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 73%, MEM 27% · Updated Jan 9

Expected margin
OKC by 8.9
Expected score
OKC 120.5 – 111.6 MEM
Expected total
232.2
ThunderThe matchupGrizzlies
−275Our fair odds+275
120.5Expected points111.6
+1.25Power rating+0.00
121.4Points / game115.2
108.1Allowed / game116.6
49.1FG%45.4
36.23P%34.6
44.1Rebounds / game46.3
31−7Season record16−21
6−4Last 103−7
Cason Wallace · Chet Holmgren
Isaiah Hartenstein · Jaylin Williams
Nikola TopicOut (5 each)Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Scotty Pippen Jr. · Ty Jerome
Zach Edey

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · MEM chance
Our model fair73.3%26.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−27573%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+27527%————
SpreadOKC by 8.9
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−8.9our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+8.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.2
Over232.2our total————
Under232.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 8.9 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byMEM wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more65%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more49%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.2 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CBranden Carlsonstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GCam Spencerstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·MEM
Jan 7 vs UTAH
last game
Jan 7 vs PHX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 9, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCCason Wallace · left great toe; sorenessOut
OKCChet Holmgren · bilateral shins; sorenessOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCJaylin Williams · right heel; bursitisOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · right ankle; sprainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCAlex Caruso · low back; sorenessQuestionable
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · right calf; contusionOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · reaction right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stressOut
MEMJohn Konchar · left thumb; ucl surgery recoveryDoubtful
MEMCedric Coward · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
MEMVince Williams Jr. · left patellar; tendinitisQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
OKC·MEM
+1.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
121.4
points / game
115.2
108.1
points allowed / game
116.6
31−7
season record
16−21
18−3
home record
8−10
13−4
away record
8−11
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
3−7
49.1
FG%
45.4
36.2
3P%
34.6
44.1
rebounds / game
46.3
25.8
assists / game
28.9
12.4
turnovers / game
15.4
52.5
points in paint / game
49.6

Rating Trend

OKC · MEM · 72 days
Oklahoma City ThunderMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 0−10
Dec 22, 2025at OKCOKC 119 − 103
Nov 9, 2025at MEMOKC 114 − 100
Apr 26, 2025at MEMOKC 117 − 115post
Apr 24, 2025at MEMOKC 114 − 108post
Apr 22, 2025at OKCOKC 118 − 99post
Apr 20, 2025at OKCOKC 131 − 80post
Mar 27, 2025at OKCOKC 125 − 104
Mar 5, 2025at MEMOKC 120 − 103
Feb 8, 2025at MEMOKC 125 − 112
Dec 29, 2024at OKCOKC 130 − 106

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 7vs UTAH129 − 125W
Jan 5vs CHA97 − 124L
Jan 4at PHX105 − 108L
Jan 2at GS131 − 94W
Dec 31, 2025vs POR124 − 95W
Dec 29, 2025vs ATL140 − 129W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI129 − 104W
Dec 25, 2025vs SA102 − 117L
Dec 23, 2025at SA110 − 130L
Dec 22, 2025vs MEM119 − 103W

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jan 7vs PHX98 − 117L
Jan 6vs SA106 − 105W
Jan 4at LAL114 − 120L
Jan 2at LAL121 − 128L
Dec 30, 2025vs PHI136 − 139L
Dec 28, 2025at WSH112 − 116L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIL125 − 104W
Dec 23, 2025at UTAH137 − 128W
Dec 22, 2025at OKC103 − 119L
Dec 20, 2025vs WSH122 − 130L