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Hornets at Thunder

NBA · Monday, Jan 5 · 7:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final CHA 124 – OKC 97
← NBA / Jan 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA33343225124
OKC3317212697
Team box
CHA·OKC
41-77
field goals
34-93
19-37
3-pointers
11-39
23-25
free throws
18-27
52
rebounds
33
25
assists
18
21
turnovers
8
42
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon MillerCHA312861
Kon KnueppelCHA282355
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC302126
Miles BridgesCHA3417114
Jalen WilliamsOKC281624
LaMelo BallCHA251622

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +30
CHA +30
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 3 · CHA 30lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 9%, OKC 91% · Updated Jan 5

Expected margin
OKC by 21.2
Expected score
OKC 122.6 – 101.5 CHA
Expected total
224.1
HornetsThe matchupThunder
+1017Our fair odds−1017
101.5Expected points122.6
−0.79Power rating+1.34
115.8Points / game121.9
118.5Allowed / game107.2
45.7FG%49.6
36.83P%36.9
44.5Rebounds / game44.2
12−23Season record30−6
5−5Last 106−4
Grant Williams · KJ Simpson
Mason Plumlee · Ryan KalkbrennerOutAlex Caruso · Brooks Barnhizer
Isaiah Hartenstein · Jaylin Williams
Nikola Topic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · OKC chance
Our model fair9.0%91.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+10179%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−101791%————
SpreadOKC by 21.2
CHACharlotte Hornets+21.2our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−21.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.1
Over224.1our total————
Under224.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 21.2 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 51 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 50 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 49 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%
← CHA wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more92%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more83%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more71%
Within 5 points either way8%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.1 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.568%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.529%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·OKC
Jan 3 at CHI
last game
Jan 4 at PHX
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 5, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAMason Plumlee · right groin; surgeryOut
CHARyan Kalkbrenner · left elbow; sprainOut
CHABrandon Miller · left knee; contusionProbable
CHAKon Knueppel · right hip; contusionProbable
CHAMoussa Diabate · right wrist; sprainProbable
CHATidjane Salaun · left ankle; sprainProbable
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso · low back; sorenessOut
OKCBrooks Barnhizer · g league - two-wayOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCJaylin Williams · right heel; bursitisOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCOusmane Dieng · right calf; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
CHA·OKC
−0.79
rating (0 = average)
+1.34
115.8
points / game
121.9
118.5
points allowed / game
107.2
12−23
season record
30−6
7−10
home record
17−2
5−13
away record
13−4
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
45.7
FG%
49.6
36.8
3P%
36.9
44.5
rebounds / game
44.2
26.4
assists / game
26.0
15.6
turnovers / game
12.6
48.0
points in paint / game
52.7

Rating Trend

CHA · OKC · 68 days
Charlotte HornetsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · OKC 5−4
Nov 15, 2025at CHAOKC 109 − 96
Mar 21, 2025at OKCOKC 141 − 106
Dec 28, 2024at CHAOKC 106 − 94
Apr 7, 2024at CHAOKC 121 − 118
Feb 2, 2024at OKCOKC 126 − 106
Mar 28, 2023at OKCCHA 137 − 134
Dec 29, 2022at CHACHA 121 − 113
Mar 14, 2022at OKCCHA 134 − 116
Jan 21, 2022at CHACHA 121 − 98

CHA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 3at CHI112 − 99W
Jan 2at MIL121 − 122L
Dec 31, 2025vs GS125 − 132L
Dec 29, 2025vs MIL113 − 123L
Dec 26, 2025at ORL120 − 105W
Dec 23, 2025vs WSH126 − 109W
Dec 22, 2025at CLE132 − 139L
Dec 20, 2025at DET86 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025vs ATL133 − 126W
Dec 14, 2025at CLE119 − 111W

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 4at PHX105 − 108L
Jan 2at GS131 − 94W
Dec 31, 2025vs POR124 − 95W
Dec 29, 2025vs ATL140 − 129W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI129 − 104W
Dec 25, 2025vs SA102 − 117L
Dec 23, 2025at SA110 − 130L
Dec 22, 2025vs MEM119 − 103W
Dec 19, 2025at MIN107 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025vs LAC122 − 101W