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Hornets at Bucks

NBA · Friday, Jan 2 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final CHA 121 – MIL 122
← NBA / Jan 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA38223130121
MIL24273635122
Team box
CHA·MIL
40-82
field goals
45-87
18-40
3-pointers
16-37
23-28
free throws
16-18
39
rebounds
36
27
assists
31
14
turnovers
11
38
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL3030105
Ryan RollinsMIL372948
Kon KnueppelCHA342643
Miles BridgesCHA372562
Bobby PortisMIL222061
Brandon MillerCHA301974

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +16
CHA +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 3 · CHA 16lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 28%, MIL 72% · Updated Jan 2

Expected margin
MIL by 7.7
Expected score
MIL 116.5 – 108.9 CHA
Expected total
225.4
HornetsThe matchupBucks
+253Our fair odds−253
108.9Expected points116.5
−0.79Power rating−0.08
115.8Points / game113.0
118.9Allowed / game115.9
45.7FG%48.6
36.53P%39.9
44.5Rebounds / game40.4
11−22Season record14−20
4−6Last 104−6
Grant Williams · Mason Plumlee
Ryan KalkbrennerOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Mark Sears
Pete Nance · Taurean Prince

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · MIL chance
Our model fair28.4%71.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+25328%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−25372%————
SpreadMIL by 7.7
CHACharlotte Hornets+7.7our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−7.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.4
Over225.4our total————
Under225.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 7.7 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 50 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 49 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 50 points: <1%
← CHA wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more61%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more45%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.4 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FBrandon Millerstarted
CPJ Hallstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·MIL
Dec 31, 2025 vs GS
last game
Dec 31, 2025 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 2, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAMason Plumlee · right groin; surgeryOut
CHARyan Kalkbrenner · left elbow; sprainOut
CHAMoussa Diabate · right wrist; sprainQuestionable
CHAMiles Bridges · right ankle; sprainProbable
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILMark Sears · g league - two-wayOut
MILPete Nance · g league - two-wayOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; injury managementProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
CHA·MIL
−0.79
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
115.8
points / game
113.0
118.9
points allowed / game
115.9
11−22
season record
14−20
7−10
home record
8−9
4−12
away record
6−11
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
45.7
FG%
48.6
36.5
3P%
39.9
44.5
rebounds / game
40.4
26.5
assists / game
26.1
15.7
turnovers / game
15.0
48.4
points in paint / game
44.6

Rating Trend

CHA · MIL · 65 days
Charlotte HornetsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 8−2
Dec 29, 2025at CHAMIL 123 − 113
Nov 14, 2025at MILMIL 147 − 134
Nov 12, 2025at CHACHA 111 − 100
Feb 5, 2025at CHAMIL 112 − 102
Nov 23, 2024at MILMIL 125 − 119
Nov 16, 2024at CHACHA 115 − 114
Feb 29, 2024at CHAMIL 111 − 99
Feb 27, 2024at MILMIL 123 − 85
Feb 9, 2024at MILMIL 120 − 84
Nov 17, 2023at CHAMIL 130 − 99

CHA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 31, 2025vs GS125 − 132L
Dec 29, 2025vs MIL113 − 123L
Dec 26, 2025at ORL120 − 105W
Dec 23, 2025vs WSH126 − 109W
Dec 22, 2025at CLE132 − 139L
Dec 20, 2025at DET86 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025vs ATL133 − 126W
Dec 14, 2025at CLE119 − 111W
Dec 12, 2025vs CHI126 − 129L
Dec 7, 2025vs DEN106 − 115L

MIL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 31, 2025vs WSH113 − 114L
Dec 29, 2025at CHA123 − 113W
Dec 27, 2025at CHI112 − 103W
Dec 26, 2025at MEM104 − 125L
Dec 23, 2025at IND111 − 94W
Dec 21, 2025at MIN100 − 103L
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR105 − 111L
Dec 14, 2025at BKN82 − 127L
Dec 11, 2025vs BOS116 − 101W
Dec 6, 2025at DET112 − 124L