bayesRatings

Spurs at Grizzlies

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 6 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final SA 105 – MEM 106
← NBA / Jan 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA31232724105
MEM21253624106
Team box
SA·MEM
38-102
field goals
39-98
14-46
3-pointers
18-49
15-18
free throws
10-15
50
rebounds
61
26
assists
28
14
turnovers
23
38
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA213053
Julian ChampagnieSA322382
Cam SpencerMEM302188
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM362192
Jock LandaleMEM241992
Stephon CastleSA281584

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +11
SA +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 7 · SA 11lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 48%, MEM 52% · Updated Jan 6

Expected margin
MEM by 0.6
Expected score
MEM 118.6 – 118.0 SA
Expected total
236.6
SpursThe matchupGrizzlies
+107Our fair odds−107
118.0Expected points118.6
+0.16Power rating+0.00
119.6Points / game116.0
114.4Allowed / game117.0
48.0FG%45.7
35.73P%34.6
46.2Rebounds / game45.8
25−11Season record15−20
7−3Last 104−6
David Jones Garcia · Devin Vassell
Harrison Ingram · Stanley UmudeOutBrandon Clarke · Cedric Coward
Jahmai Mashack · John Konchar
Scotty Pippen Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · MEM chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+10748%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−10752%————
SpreadMEM by 0.6
SASan Antonio Spurs+0.6our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.6
Over236.6our total————
Under236.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 0.6 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%
← SA wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more42%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more28%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.6 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
CLuke Kornetstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GCam Spencerstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·MEM
Jan 3 vs POR
last game
Jan 4 at LAL
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 6, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SADevin Vassell · left adductor; strainOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayOut
SAVictor Wembanyama · left knee; bone bruiseQuestionable
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMCedric Coward · left ankle; sprainOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · g league - two-wayOut
MEMJohn Konchar · left thumb; ucl surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
MEMJa Morant · right calf; contusionDoubtful
MEMVince Williams Jr. · left patellar; tendinitisProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
SA·MEM
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
119.6
points / game
116.0
114.4
points allowed / game
117.0
25−11
season record
15−20
12−5
home record
7−9
13−6
away record
8−11
L1
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
4−6
48.0
FG%
45.7
35.7
3P%
34.6
46.2
rebounds / game
45.8
26.1
assists / game
29.1
13.9
turnovers / game
15.1
51.0
points in paint / game
50.2

Rating Trend

SA · MEM · 69 days
San Antonio SpursMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 6−4
Dec 2, 2025at SASA 126 − 119
Nov 18, 2025at SASA 111 − 101
Mar 1, 2025at MEMSA 130 − 128
Feb 3, 2025at MEMMEM 128 − 109
Jan 17, 2025at SAMEM 140 − 112
Jan 15, 2025at SAMEM 129 − 115
Apr 9, 2024at MEMSA 102 − 87
Mar 22, 2024at SAMEM 99 − 97
Jan 2, 2024at MEMMEM 106 − 98
Nov 18, 2023at SAMEM 120 − 108

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 3vs POR110 − 115L
Jan 2at IND123 − 113W
Dec 31, 2025vs NY134 − 132W
Dec 29, 2025vs CLE101 − 113L
Dec 27, 2025vs UTAH114 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025at OKC117 − 102W
Dec 23, 2025vs OKC130 − 110W
Dec 21, 2025at WSH124 − 113W
Dec 19, 2025at ATL126 − 98W
Dec 18, 2025vs WSH119 − 94W

MEM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Jan 4at LAL114 − 120L
Jan 2at LAL121 − 128L
Dec 30, 2025vs PHI136 − 139L
Dec 28, 2025at WSH112 − 116L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIL125 − 104W
Dec 23, 2025at UTAH137 − 128W
Dec 22, 2025at OKC103 − 119L
Dec 20, 2025vs WSH122 − 130L
Dec 17, 2025at MIN116 − 110W
Dec 15, 2025at LAC121 − 103W