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Spurs at Pacers

NBA · Friday, Jan 2 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final SA 123 – IND 113
← NBA / Jan 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA30412230123
IND31272728113
Team box
SA·IND
44-98
field goals
44-86
13-46
3-pointers
12-30
22-28
free throws
13-15
49
rebounds
39
23
assists
26
13
turnovers
14
60
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
De'Aaron FoxSA322474
Pascal SiakamIND362395
Dylan HarperSA292221
Stephon CastleSA331988
Andrew NembhardIND361966
Micah PotterIND281661

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +19
SA +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 9 · SA 19lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 53%, IND 47% · Updated Jan 2

Expected margin
SA by 1.5
Expected score
SA 117.3 – 115.8 IND
Expected total
233.2
SpursThe matchupPacers
−111Our fair odds+111
117.3Expected points115.8
+0.15Power rating−0.18
119.7Points / game110.1
114.5Allowed / game119.1
48.2FG%43.6
36.03P%33.1
46.1Rebounds / game42.9
24−10Season record6−28
7−3Last 100−10
David Jones Garcia · Devin Vassell
Harrison Ingram · Stanley Umude
Victor WembanyamaOutIsaiah Jackson · Obi Toppin
Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · IND chance
Our model fair52.7%47.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−11153%————
INDIndiana Pacers+11147%————
SpreadSA by 1.5
SASan Antonio Spurs−1.5our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.2
Over233.2our total————
Under233.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 1.5 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%
← SA wins byIND wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more44%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more30%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.2 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.548%
Total over 243.529%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
CLuke Kornetstarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CMicah Potterstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·IND
Dec 31, 2025 vs NY
last game
Dec 31, 2025 vs ORL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 2, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SADevin Vassell · left adductor; strainOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayOut
SAVictor Wembanyama · left knee; sorenessOut
Indiana Pacers
INDIsaiah Jackson · n/a; concussionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDT.J. McConnell · right hamstring; sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
SA·IND
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.18
119.7
points / game
110.1
114.5
points allowed / game
119.1
24−10
season record
6−28
12−4
home record
5−13
12−6
away record
1−15
W1
streak
L10
7−3
last 10
0−10
48.2
FG%
43.6
36.0
3P%
33.1
46.1
rebounds / game
42.9
26.1
assists / game
23.8
14.1
turnovers / game
14.1
50.6
points in paint / game
44.5

Rating Trend

SA · IND · 65 days
San Antonio SpursIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · IND 4−4
Jan 25, 2025at SAIND 136 − 98
Jan 23, 2025at INDSA 140 − 110
Mar 3, 2024at SASA 117 − 105
Nov 6, 2023at INDIND 152 − 111
Mar 2, 2023at SASA 110 − 99
Oct 21, 2022at INDSA 137 − 134
Mar 12, 2022at SAIND 119 − 108
Nov 1, 2021at INDIND 131 − 118

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Dec 31, 2025vs NY134 − 132W
Dec 29, 2025vs CLE101 − 113L
Dec 27, 2025vs UTAH114 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025at OKC117 − 102W
Dec 23, 2025vs OKC130 − 110W
Dec 21, 2025at WSH124 − 113W
Dec 19, 2025at ATL126 − 98W
Dec 18, 2025vs WSH119 − 94W
Dec 16, 2025at NY113 − 124L
Dec 13, 2025at OKC111 − 109W

IND · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Dec 31, 2025vs ORL110 − 112L
Dec 29, 2025at HOU119 − 126L
Dec 27, 2025at MIA116 − 142L
Dec 26, 2025vs BOS122 − 140L
Dec 23, 2025vs MIL94 − 111L
Dec 22, 2025at BOS95 − 103L
Dec 20, 2025at NO109 − 128L
Dec 18, 2025vs NY113 − 114L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH89 − 108L
Dec 12, 2025at PHI105 − 115L