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Trail Blazers at Spurs

NBA · Saturday, Jan 3 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final POR 115 – SA 110
← NBA / Jan 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR35203228115
SA24272930110
Team box
POR·SA
40-91
field goals
40-93
19-45
3-pointers
10-31
16-27
free throws
20-23
51
rebounds
48
24
assists
27
11
turnovers
6
42
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Deni AvdijaPOR39291010
Donovan ClinganPOR3424124
Luke KornetSA312383
Julian ChampagnieSA3320104
Toumani CamaraPOR362081
De'Aaron FoxSA351964

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +15
POR +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 3 · POR 15lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 35%, SA 65% · Updated Jan 3

Expected margin
SA by 5.5
Expected score
SA 119.2 – 113.7 POR
Expected total
232.9
Trail BlazersThe matchupSpurs
+185Our fair odds−185
113.7Expected points119.2
−0.24Power rating+0.15
116.3Points / game119.8
119.9Allowed / game114.4
44.7FG%48.1
33.73P%35.8
45.4Rebounds / game46.2
15−20Season record25−10
6−4Last 107−3
Blake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Jerami Grant · Jrue Holiday
Matisse ThybulleOutDevin Vassell · Harrison Ingram
Victor Wembanyama

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · SA chance
Our model fair35.0%65.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+18535%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−18565%————
SpreadSA by 5.5
PORPortland Trail Blazers+5.5our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−5.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.9
Over232.9our total————
Under232.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 5.5 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%
← POR wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more55%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more40%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.9 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.550%
Total over 242.531%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GShaedon Sharpestarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FKris Murraystarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
CLuke Kornetstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·SA
Jan 2 at NO
last game
Jan 2 at IND
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 3, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORJerami Grant · left achilles; tendonitisOut
PORJrue Holiday · right calf; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · right knee; tendinopathyOut
PORRobert Williams III · left knee; injuryOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADevin Vassell · left adductor; strainOut
SAHarrison Ingram · management g league - two-wayOut
SAVictor Wembanyama · left knee; sorenessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
POR·SA
−0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.15
116.3
points / game
119.8
119.9
points allowed / game
114.4
15−20
season record
25−10
7−9
home record
12−4
8−11
away record
13−6
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
7−3
44.7
FG%
48.1
33.7
3P%
35.8
45.4
rebounds / game
46.2
24.7
assists / game
26.0
17.2
turnovers / game
14.1
48.6
points in paint / game
50.9

Rating Trend

POR · SA · 66 days
Portland Trail BlazersSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 7−3
Nov 26, 2025at PORSA 115 − 102
Apr 6, 2025at PORPOR 120 − 109
Dec 21, 2024at SASA 114 − 94
Dec 13, 2024at PORSA 118 − 116
Nov 7, 2024at SASA 118 − 105
Jan 26, 2024at SASA 116 − 100
Dec 29, 2023at PORPOR 134 − 128
Dec 28, 2023at PORSA 118 − 105
Apr 6, 2023at SASA 129 − 127
Jan 23, 2023at PORPOR 147 − 127

POR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 2at NO122 − 109W
Dec 31, 2025at OKC95 − 124L
Dec 29, 2025vs DAL125 − 122W
Dec 28, 2025vs BOS114 − 108W
Dec 26, 2025vs LAC103 − 119L
Dec 23, 2025vs ORL106 − 110L
Dec 22, 2025vs DET102 − 110L
Dec 20, 2025at SAC98 − 93W
Dec 18, 2025vs SAC134 − 133W
Dec 14, 2025vs GS136 − 131W

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jan 2at IND123 − 113W
Dec 31, 2025vs NY134 − 132W
Dec 29, 2025vs CLE101 − 113L
Dec 27, 2025vs UTAH114 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025at OKC117 − 102W
Dec 23, 2025vs OKC130 − 110W
Dec 21, 2025at WSH124 − 113W
Dec 19, 2025at ATL126 − 98W
Dec 18, 2025vs WSH119 − 94W
Dec 16, 2025at NY113 − 124L