bayesRatings

Suns at Grizzlies

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 7 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final PHX 117 – MEM 98
← NBA / Jan 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX30352626117
MEM2324213098
Team box
PHX·MEM
45-97
field goals
39-92
22-56
3-pointers
12-37
5-8
free throws
8-14
51
rebounds
47
31
assists
23
18
turnovers
18
44
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Dillon BrooksPHX252173
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM291941
Grayson AllenPHX211901
Javon SmallMEM211437
Cam SpencerMEM271435
Kentavious Caldwell-PopeMEM171432

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +26
PHX +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 4 · PHX 26lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 47%, MEM 53% · Updated Jan 7

Expected margin
MEM by 1.5
Expected score
MEM 117.0 – 115.5 PHX
Expected total
232.5
SunsThe matchupGrizzlies
+114Our fair odds−114
115.5Expected points117.0
+0.09Power rating+0.00
114.8Points / game115.7
112.8Allowed / game116.6
46.6FG%45.5
36.23P%34.7
43.2Rebounds / game46.2
21−15Season record16−20
7−3Last 104−6
Jalen Green · Jamaree BouyeaOutBrandon Clarke · Cedric Coward
Jahmai Mashack · John Konchar
Scotty Pippen Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · MEM chance
Our model fair46.7%53.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+11447%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−11453%————
SpreadMEM by 1.5
PHXPhoenix Suns+1.5our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.5
Over232.5our total————
Under232.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 1.5 expected
Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%
← PHX wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more44%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more30%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.5 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GCam Spencerstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FGG Jacksonstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·MEM
Jan 5 at HOU
last game
Jan 6 vs SA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 7, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXJamaree Bouyea · concussion protocolOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMCedric Coward · left ankle; sprainOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · g league - two-wayOut
MEMJohn Konchar · left thumb; ucl surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut
MEMJa Morant · right calf; contusionQuestionable
MEMSanti Aldama · right ankle; sorenessQuestionable
MEMVince Williams Jr. · left patellar; tendinitisQuestionable
and 1 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
PHX·MEM
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
114.8
points / game
115.7
112.8
points allowed / game
116.6
21−15
season record
16−20
12−5
home record
8−9
9−10
away record
8−11
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
46.6
FG%
45.5
36.2
3P%
34.7
43.2
rebounds / game
46.2
25.2
assists / game
29.1
15.6
turnovers / game
15.3
45.6
points in paint / game
49.8

Rating Trend

PHX · MEM · 70 days
Phoenix SunsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 7−3
Oct 29, 2025at PHXMEM 114 − 113
Mar 10, 2025at MEMMEM 120 − 118
Feb 25, 2025at MEMMEM 151 − 148
Feb 11, 2025at PHXMEM 119 − 112
Dec 31, 2024at PHXMEM 117 − 112
Jan 7, 2024at PHXMEM 121 − 115
Dec 2, 2023at PHXPHX 116 − 109
Nov 24, 2023at MEMPHX 110 − 89
Jan 22, 2023at PHXPHX 112 − 110
Jan 16, 2023at MEMMEM 136 − 106

PHX · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 5at HOU97 − 100L
Jan 4vs OKC108 − 105W
Jan 2vs SAC129 − 102W
Dec 31, 2025at CLE113 − 129L
Dec 29, 2025at WSH115 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025at NO123 − 114W
Dec 26, 2025at NO115 − 108W
Dec 23, 2025vs LAL132 − 108W
Dec 20, 2025at GS116 − 119L
Dec 18, 2025vs GS99 − 98W

MEM · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 6vs SA106 − 105W
Jan 4at LAL114 − 120L
Jan 2at LAL121 − 128L
Dec 30, 2025vs PHI136 − 139L
Dec 28, 2025at WSH112 − 116L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIL125 − 104W
Dec 23, 2025at UTAH137 − 128W
Dec 22, 2025at OKC103 − 119L
Dec 20, 2025vs WSH122 − 130L
Dec 17, 2025at MIN116 − 110W