bayesRatings

Suns at Rockets

NBA · Monday, Jan 5 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final PHX 97 – HOU 100
← NBA / Jan 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX2931181997
HOU25292422100
Team box
PHX·HOU
37-88
field goals
38-87
14-41
3-pointers
9-37
9-12
free throws
15-21
40
rebounds
51
23
assists
20
13
turnovers
16
40
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Devin BookerPHX332703
Kevin DurantHOU3926104
Amen ThompsonHOU371776
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU381773
Royce O'NealePHX311563
Dillon BrooksPHX341542

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +13
PHX +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 7 · PHX 13lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 32%, HOU 68% · Updated Jan 5

Expected margin
HOU by 7.6
Expected score
HOU 117.2 – 109.7 PHX
Expected total
226.9
SunsThe matchupRockets
+211Our fair odds−211
109.7Expected points117.2
+0.08Power rating+0.61
115.3Points / game120.0
113.2Allowed / game111.4
46.7FG%49.3
36.33P%39.7
43.3Rebounds / game48.8
21−14Season record21−11
7−3Last 105−5
Jalen Green · Jamaree BouyeaOutAlperen Sengun · Fred VanVleet
JD Davison · Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · HOU chance
Our model fair32.1%67.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+21132%————
HOUHouston Rockets−21168%————
SpreadHOU by 7.6
PHXPhoenix Suns+7.6our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−7.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.9
Over226.9our total————
Under226.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 7.6 expected
Phoenix Suns by 50 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 49 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 48 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%
← PHX wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more60%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more45%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.9 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.570%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.531%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CSteven Adamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·HOU
Jan 4 vs OKC
last game
Jan 3 at DAL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 5, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXJamaree Bouyea · concussion protocolOut
PHXGrayson Allen · right knee; injury managementProbable
PHXMark Williams · right knee; injury managementProbable
Houston Rockets
HOUAlperen Sengun · right ankle; sprainOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUJD Davison · g league - two-wayOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
HOUSteven Adams · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
PHX·HOU
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.61
115.3
points / game
120.0
113.2
points allowed / game
111.4
21−14
season record
21−11
12−5
home record
10−2
9−9
away record
11−9
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
46.7
FG%
49.3
36.3
3P%
39.7
43.3
rebounds / game
48.8
25.3
assists / game
25.7
15.6
turnovers / game
16.0
45.8
points in paint / game
54.4

Rating Trend

PHX · HOU · 68 days
Phoenix SunsHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 8−2
Dec 5, 2025at HOUHOU 117 − 98
Nov 24, 2025at PHXHOU 114 − 92
Mar 30, 2025at PHXHOU 148 − 109
Mar 12, 2025at HOUHOU 111 − 104
Feb 12, 2025at HOUHOU 119 − 111
Mar 2, 2024at PHXHOU 118 − 109
Feb 29, 2024at PHXPHX 110 − 105
Feb 23, 2024at HOUHOU 114 − 110
Dec 27, 2023at HOUPHX 129 − 113
Dec 13, 2022at HOUHOU 111 − 97

PHX · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jan 4vs OKC108 − 105W
Jan 2vs SAC129 − 102W
Dec 31, 2025at CLE113 − 129L
Dec 29, 2025at WSH115 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025at NO123 − 114W
Dec 26, 2025at NO115 − 108W
Dec 23, 2025vs LAL132 − 108W
Dec 20, 2025at GS116 − 119L
Dec 18, 2025vs GS99 − 98W
Dec 14, 2025vs LAL114 − 116L

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 3at DAL104 − 110L
Jan 1at BKN120 − 96W
Dec 29, 2025vs IND126 − 119W
Dec 27, 2025vs CLE117 − 100W
Dec 25, 2025at LAL119 − 96W
Dec 23, 2025at LAC108 − 128L
Dec 21, 2025at SAC124 − 125L
Dec 20, 2025at DEN115 − 101W
Dec 18, 2025at NO128 − 133L
Dec 15, 2025at DEN125 − 128L