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Rockets at Mavericks

NBA · Saturday, Jan 3 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final HOU 104 – DAL 110
← NBA / Jan 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU31192529104
DAL25323023110
Team box
HOU·DAL
41-106
field goals
44-80
10-41
3-pointers
8-21
12-15
free throws
14-18
51
rebounds
47
24
assists
24
9
turnovers
16
54
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU383457
Anthony DavisDAL3926123
Max ChristieDAL352472
Amen ThompsonHOU3920124
Tari EasonHOU3419102
Brandon WilliamsDAL241573

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +17
HOU +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 17 · HOU 11lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 64%, DAL 36% · Updated Jan 3

Expected margin
HOU by 5.4
Expected score
HOU 117.0 – 111.6 DAL
Expected total
228.7
RocketsThe matchupMavericks
−181Our fair odds+181
117.0Expected points111.6
+0.61Power rating−0.22
120.5Points / game113.6
111.5Allowed / game117.9
49.7FG%46.9
40.23P%33.2
48.7Rebounds / game44.4
21−10Season record12−23
6−4Last 103−7
Fred VanVleet · Isaiah Crawford
Steven Adams · Tyler SmithOutDante Exum · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving · Miles Kelly
Moussa Cisse

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · DAL chance
Our model fair64.4%35.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−18164%————
DALDallas Mavericks+18136%————
SpreadHOU by 5.4
HOUHouston Rockets−5.4our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+5.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.7
Over228.7our total————
Under228.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 5.4 expected
Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%
← HOU wins byDAL wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more55%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more39%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.7 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FAnthony Davisstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·DAL
Jan 1 at BKN
last game
Jan 1 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 3, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUSteven Adams · right ankle; sprainOut
HOUTyler Smith · g league - two-wayOut
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayOut
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
HOU·DAL
+0.61
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
120.5
points / game
113.6
111.5
points allowed / game
117.9
21−10
season record
12−23
10−2
home record
9−10
11−8
away record
3−13
W4
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
3−7
49.7
FG%
46.9
40.2
3P%
33.2
48.7
rebounds / game
44.4
25.7
assists / game
25.2
16.3
turnovers / game
15.4
54.5
points in paint / game
53.3

Rating Trend

HOU · DAL · 66 days
Houston RocketsDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 5−5
Dec 6, 2025at DALDAL 122 − 109
Nov 3, 2025at HOUHOU 110 − 102
Mar 14, 2025at HOUHOU 133 − 96
Feb 8, 2025at DALDAL 116 − 105
Jan 1, 2025at HOUHOU 110 − 99
Oct 31, 2024at DALHOU 108 − 102
Apr 7, 2024at DALDAL 147 − 136
Mar 31, 2024at HOUDAL 125 − 107
Dec 22, 2023at HOUHOU 122 − 96
Nov 28, 2023at DALDAL 121 − 115

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jan 1at BKN120 − 96W
Dec 29, 2025vs IND126 − 119W
Dec 27, 2025vs CLE117 − 100W
Dec 25, 2025at LAL119 − 96W
Dec 23, 2025at LAC108 − 128L
Dec 21, 2025at SAC124 − 125L
Dec 20, 2025at DEN115 − 101W
Dec 18, 2025at NO128 − 133L
Dec 15, 2025at DEN125 − 128L
Dec 11, 2025vs LAC115 − 113W

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Jan 1vs PHI108 − 123L
Dec 29, 2025at POR122 − 125L
Dec 27, 2025at SAC107 − 113L
Dec 25, 2025at GS116 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs DEN131 − 130W
Dec 22, 2025at NO113 − 119L
Dec 20, 2025at PHI114 − 121L
Dec 18, 2025vs DET116 − 114W
Dec 15, 2025at UTAH133 − 140L
Dec 12, 2025vs BKN119 − 111W