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76ers at Mavericks

NBA · Thursday, Jan 1 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final PHI 123 – DAL 108
← NBA / Jan 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI27412431123
DAL33242625108
Team box
PHI·DAL
48-90
field goals
42-94
13-36
3-pointers
6-28
14-16
free throws
18-20
43
rebounds
39
22
assists
23
12
turnovers
13
58
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyrese MaxeyPHI4234810
VJ EdgecombePHI402352
Joel EmbiidPHI352246
Quentin GrimesPHI381972
Max ChristieDAL291812
Brandon WilliamsDAL241475

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +15
PHI +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 8 · PHI 15lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 42%, DAL 58% · Updated Jan 1

Expected margin
DAL by 2.1
Expected score
DAL 115.3 – 113.2 PHI
Expected total
228.5
76ersThe matchupMavericks
+137Our fair odds−137
113.2Expected points115.3
−0.31Power rating−0.22
116.4Points / game113.7
116.3Allowed / game117.7
44.7FG%47.0
35.83P%33.5
44.8Rebounds / game44.5
17−14Season record12−22
5−5Last 104−6
Johni Broome · Kelly Oubre Jr.
MarJon Beauchamp · Trendon WatfordOutDante Exum · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · DAL chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+13742%————
DALDallas Mavericks−13758%————
SpreadDAL by 2.1
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+2.1our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks−2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.5
Over228.5our total————
Under228.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 2.1 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%
← PHI wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more46%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more32%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.5 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FAnthony Davisstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·DAL
Dec 30, 2025 at MEM
last game
Dec 29, 2025 at POR
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 1, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJohni Broome · g league - on assignmentOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · left knee; sprainOut
PHIMarJon Beauchamp · g league - two-wayOut
PHITrendon Watford · left adductor; strainOut
PHIJoel Embiid · right ankle; sprain; right knee injury managementProbable
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALD'Angelo Russell · illness; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
PHI·DAL
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
116.4
points / game
113.7
116.3
points allowed / game
117.7
17−14
season record
12−22
9−8
home record
9−9
8−6
away record
3−13
W1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
4−6
44.7
FG%
47.0
35.8
3P%
33.5
44.8
rebounds / game
44.5
24.9
assists / game
25.3
14.2
turnovers / game
15.4
47.8
points in paint / game
53.0

Rating Trend

PHI · DAL · 64 days
Philadelphia 76ersDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DAL 3−6
Dec 20, 2025at PHIPHI 121 − 114
Mar 16, 2025at DALPHI 130 − 125
Feb 4, 2025at PHIPHI 118 − 116
Mar 3, 2024at DALPHI 120 − 116
Feb 5, 2024at PHIDAL 118 − 102
Mar 29, 2023at PHIPHI 116 − 108
Mar 2, 2023at DALDAL 133 − 126
Mar 18, 2022at PHIPHI 111 − 101
Feb 4, 2022at DALDAL 107 − 98

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 30, 2025at MEM139 − 136W
Dec 28, 2025at OKC104 − 129L
Dec 26, 2025at CHI102 − 109L
Dec 23, 2025vs BKN106 − 114L
Dec 20, 2025vs DAL121 − 114W
Dec 19, 2025at NY116 − 107W
Dec 14, 2025at ATL117 − 120L
Dec 12, 2025vs IND115 − 105W
Dec 7, 2025vs LAL108 − 112L
Dec 5, 2025at MIL116 − 101W

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Dec 29, 2025at POR122 − 125L
Dec 27, 2025at SAC107 − 113L
Dec 25, 2025at GS116 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs DEN131 − 130W
Dec 22, 2025at NO113 − 119L
Dec 20, 2025at PHI114 − 121L
Dec 18, 2025vs DET116 − 114W
Dec 15, 2025at UTAH133 − 140L
Dec 12, 2025vs BKN119 − 111W
Dec 6, 2025vs HOU122 − 109W