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Jazz at Thunder

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 7 · 7:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final UTAH 125 – OKC 129
← NBA / Jan 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
UTAH2231332811125
OKC3127332315129
Team box
UTAH·OKC
49-111
field goals
44-101
11-41
3-pointers
7-38
16-21
free throws
34-42
65
rebounds
51
33
assists
26
20
turnovers
11
70
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC424666
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH4429131
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH4325711
Chet HolmgrenOKC4023121
Jalen WilliamsOKC411768
Ajay MitchellOKC331625

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +20
UTAH +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: OKC 20 · UTAH 8lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 10%, OKC 90% · Updated Jan 7

Expected margin
OKC by 20.8
Expected score
OKC 128.9 – 108.1 UTAH
Expected total
237.0
JazzThe matchupThunder
+901Our fair odds−901
108.1Expected points128.9
−0.76Power rating+1.25
119.6Points / game121.2
127.0Allowed / game107.6
46.3FG%49.3
35.63P%36.7
44.4Rebounds / game43.9
12−23Season record30−7
2−8Last 105−5
Elijah Harkless · Georges Niang
John Tonje · Kevin Love
Walker KesslerOut (5 each)Alex Caruso · Isaiah Hartenstein
Jaylin Williams · Nikola Topic
Ousmane Dieng

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · OKC chance
Our model fair10.0%90.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+90110%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−90190%————
SpreadOKC by 20.8
UTAHUtah Jazz+20.8our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−20.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.0
Over237.0our total————
Under237.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 20.8 expected
Utah Jazz by 51 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 50 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 8 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 7 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 6 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 5 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 4 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more91%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more82%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more69%
Within 5 points either way8%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.0 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.567%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GSvi Mykhailiukstarted
GKeyonte Georgestarted
FLauri Markkanenstarted
FBrice Sensabaughstarted
CJusuf Nurkicstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·OKC
Jan 5 at POR
last game
Jan 5 vs CHA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 7, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHElijah Harkless · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHGeorges Niang · left foot; fourth metatarsal stress reactionOut
UTAHJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHKevin Love · restOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
UTAHAce Bailey · left hip flexor; strainQuestionable
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso · low back; sorenessOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCJaylin Williams · right heel; bursitisOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCOusmane Dieng · right calf; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · right knee; bursitisQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
UTAH·OKC
−0.76
rating (0 = average)
+1.25
119.6
points / game
121.2
127.0
points allowed / game
107.6
12−23
season record
30−7
8−11
home record
17−3
4−12
away record
13−4
L4
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
5−5
46.3
FG%
49.3
35.6
3P%
36.7
44.4
rebounds / game
43.9
30.1
assists / game
25.8
15.8
turnovers / game
12.5
49.7
points in paint / game
52.5

Rating Trend

UTAH · OKC · 70 days
Utah JazzOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 9−1
Dec 7, 2025at UTAHOKC 131 − 101
Nov 21, 2025at UTAHOKC 144 − 112
Apr 11, 2025at UTAHOKC 145 − 111
Feb 21, 2025at UTAHOKC 130 − 107
Jan 22, 2025at OKCOKC 123 − 114
Dec 3, 2024at OKCOKC 133 − 106
Mar 20, 2024at OKCOKC 119 − 107
Feb 6, 2024at UTAHUTAH 124 − 117
Jan 18, 2024at UTAHOKC 134 − 129
Dec 11, 2023at OKCOKC 134 − 120

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Jan 5at POR117 − 137L
Jan 3at GS114 − 123L
Jan 1at LAC101 − 118L
Dec 30, 2025vs BOS119 − 129L
Dec 27, 2025at SA127 − 114W
Dec 26, 2025vs DET131 − 129W
Dec 23, 2025vs MEM128 − 137L
Dec 22, 2025at DEN112 − 135L
Dec 20, 2025vs ORL127 − 128L
Dec 18, 2025vs LAL135 − 143L

OKC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jan 5vs CHA97 − 124L
Jan 4at PHX105 − 108L
Jan 2at GS131 − 94W
Dec 31, 2025vs POR124 − 95W
Dec 29, 2025vs ATL140 − 129W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI129 − 104W
Dec 25, 2025vs SA102 − 117L
Dec 23, 2025at SA110 − 130L
Dec 22, 2025vs MEM119 − 103W
Dec 19, 2025at MIN107 − 112L