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Jazz at Warriors

NBA · Saturday, Jan 3 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final UTAH 114 – GS 123
← NBA / Jan 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
UTAH29363118114
GS25334223123
Team box
UTAH·GS
45-86
field goals
43-87
13-35
3-pointers
19-45
11-17
free throws
18-24
37
rebounds
45
32
assists
32
15
turnovers
15
62
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH413561
Stephen CurryGS343125
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH362229
Jimmy Butler IIIGS341537
Quinten PostGS231552
De'Anthony MeltonGS251372

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +13
UTAH +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 13 · UTAH 12lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 23%, GS 77% · Updated Jan 3

Expected margin
GS by 10.7
Expected score
GS 123.2 – 112.6 UTAH
Expected total
235.8
JazzThe matchupWarriors
+333Our fair odds−333
112.6Expected points123.2
−0.71Power rating+0.28
119.8Points / game115.0
126.8Allowed / game113.9
46.1FG%45.4
35.43P%36.1
44.7Rebounds / game43.6
12−21Season record18−17
4−6Last 105−5
Ace Bailey · Elijah Harkless
Georges Niang · John Tonje
Jusuf NurkicOutAl Horford · LJ Cryer
Malevy Leons · Seth Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · GS chance
Our model fair23.1%76.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Jazz+33323%————
GSGolden State Warriors−33377%————
SpreadGS by 10.7
UTAHUtah Jazz+10.7our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−10.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.8
Over235.8our total————
Under235.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 10.7 expected
Utah Jazz by 52 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 51 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 50 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 50 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 51 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 52 points: <1%
← UTAH wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more68%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more53%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.8 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.569%
Total over 235.549%
Total over 245.531%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Utah Jazz
GSvi Mykhailiukstarted
GKeyonte Georgestarted
FKevin Lovestarted
FLauri Markkanenstarted
FBrice Sensabaughstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·GS
Jan 1 at LAC
last game
Jan 2 vs OKC
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 3, 5:00 PM ET
Utah Jazz
UTAHAce Bailey · left hip flexor; strainOut
UTAHElijah Harkless · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHGeorges Niang · left foot; fourthOut
UTAHJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · metatarsal stress reaction left first mtp; sprainOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · left knee; contusionProbable
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · left toe; injury managementOut
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSMalevy Leons · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSJimmy Butler III · general; illnessQuestionable
GSJonathan Kuminga · bilateral low back; sorenessQuestionable
GSStephen Curry · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
GSWill Richard · left retrocalcaneal; impingementProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
UTAH·GS
−0.71
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
119.8
points / game
115.0
126.8
points allowed / game
113.9
12−21
season record
18−17
8−11
home record
10−5
4−10
away record
8−12
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
46.1
FG%
45.4
35.4
3P%
36.1
44.7
rebounds / game
43.6
30.0
assists / game
27.9
15.8
turnovers / game
16.2
49.2
points in paint / game
42.1

Rating Trend

UTAH · GS · 66 days
Utah JazzGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 8−2
Nov 24, 2025at GSGS 134 − 117
Feb 5, 2025at UTAHUTAH 131 − 128
Jan 28, 2025at GSGS 114 − 103
Oct 25, 2024at UTAHGS 127 − 86
Apr 14, 2024at GSGS 123 − 116
Apr 7, 2024at GSGS 118 − 110
Feb 15, 2024at UTAHGS 140 − 137
Feb 12, 2024at UTAHGS 129 − 107
Dec 28, 2022at GSGS 112 − 107
Dec 7, 2022at UTAHUTAH 124 − 123

UTAH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jan 1at LAC101 − 118L
Dec 30, 2025vs BOS119 − 129L
Dec 27, 2025at SA127 − 114W
Dec 26, 2025vs DET131 − 129W
Dec 23, 2025vs MEM128 − 137L
Dec 22, 2025at DEN112 − 135L
Dec 20, 2025vs ORL127 − 128L
Dec 18, 2025vs LAL135 − 143L
Dec 15, 2025vs DAL140 − 133W
Dec 12, 2025at MEM130 − 126W

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 2vs OKC94 − 131L
Dec 31, 2025at CHA132 − 125W
Dec 29, 2025at BKN120 − 107W
Dec 28, 2025at TOR127 − 141L
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL126 − 116W
Dec 22, 2025vs ORL120 − 97W
Dec 20, 2025vs PHX119 − 116W
Dec 18, 2025at PHX98 − 99L
Dec 14, 2025at POR131 − 136L
Dec 12, 2025vs MIN120 − 127L