bayesRatings

Nuggets at Nets

NBA · Sunday, Jan 4 · 2:30 PM CT · Barclays Center · Final DEN 115 – BKN 127
← NBA / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN29233231115
BKN33264127127
Team box
DEN·BKN
41-85
field goals
41-81
11-31
3-pointers
14-33
22-28
free throws
31-37
33
rebounds
44
29
assists
29
10
turnovers
10
50
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN4027616
Michael Porter Jr.BKN3227115
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN342621
Peyton WatsonDEN292342
Noah ClowneyBKN292262
Aaron GordonDEN212062

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BKN +22
DEN +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BKN 22 · DEN 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 72%, BKN 28% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
DEN by 7.8
Expected score
DEN 117.8 – 109.9 BKN
Expected total
227.7
NuggetsThe matchupNets
−255Our fair odds+255
117.8Expected points109.9
+0.56Power rating−0.62
124.6Points / game108.9
117.9Allowed / game114.2
51.0FG%44.9
39.73P%34.3
43.7Rebounds / game39.7
23−11Season record10−22
5−5Last 105−5
Cameron Johnson · Jonas Valanciunas
Nikola Jokic · Tamar BatesOutBen Saraf · Chaney Johnson
E.J. Liddell · Haywood Highsmith
Nic Claxton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · BKN chance
Our model fair71.8%28.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−25572%————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+25528%————
SpreadDEN by 7.8
DENDenver Nuggets−7.8our margin————
BKNBrooklyn Nets+7.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.7
Over227.7our total————
Under227.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 7.8 expected
Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 47 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 48 points: <1%
← DEN wins byBKN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more62%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more46%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.7 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FDaRon Holmes IIstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GEgor Deminstarted
FMichael Porter Jr.started
FNoah Clowneystarted
CDay'Ron Sharpestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·BKN
Jan 2 at CLE
last game
Jan 2 at WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 3, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; bone bruiseOut
DENJonas Valanciunas · right calf; strainOut
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; bone bruiseOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
Brooklyn Nets
BKNBen Saraf · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNChaney Johnson · g league - two-wayOut
BKNE.J. Liddell · g league - two-wayOut
BKNHaywood Highsmith · right knee; injury recoveryOut
BKNNic Claxton · personal reasonsOut
BKNTyson Etienne · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
DEN·BKN
+0.56
rating (0 = average)
−0.62
124.6
points / game
108.9
117.9
points allowed / game
114.2
23−11
season record
10−22
10−5
home record
4−13
13−6
away record
6−9
L1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
5−5
51.0
FG%
44.9
39.7
3P%
34.3
43.7
rebounds / game
39.7
29.2
assists / game
25.3
13.2
turnovers / game
15.9
51.9
points in paint / game
42.5

Rating Trend

DEN · BKN · 67 days
Denver NuggetsBrooklyn Nets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · BKN 1−7
Jan 10, 2025at DENDEN 124 − 105
Oct 29, 2024at BKNDEN 144 − 139
Dec 22, 2023at BKNDEN 122 − 117
Dec 14, 2023at DENDEN 124 − 101
Mar 19, 2023at BKNDEN 108 − 102
Mar 12, 2023at DENBKN 122 − 120
Feb 6, 2022at DENDEN 124 − 104
Jan 26, 2022at BKNDEN 124 − 118

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 2at CLE108 − 113L
Dec 31, 2025at TOR106 − 103W
Dec 29, 2025at MIA123 − 147L
Dec 27, 2025at ORL126 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025vs MIN142 − 138W
Dec 23, 2025at DAL130 − 131L
Dec 22, 2025vs UTAH135 − 112W
Dec 20, 2025vs HOU101 − 115L
Dec 18, 2025vs ORL126 − 115W
Dec 15, 2025vs HOU128 − 125W

BKN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jan 2at WSH99 − 119L
Jan 1vs HOU96 − 120L
Dec 29, 2025vs GS107 − 120L
Dec 27, 2025at MIN123 − 107W
Dec 23, 2025at PHI114 − 106W
Dec 21, 2025vs TOR96 − 81W
Dec 18, 2025vs MIA95 − 106L
Dec 14, 2025vs MIL127 − 82W
Dec 12, 2025at DAL111 − 119L
Dec 6, 2025vs NO119 − 101W