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Nuggets at Cavaliers

NBA · Friday, Jan 2 · 6:30 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final DEN 108 – CLE 113
← NBA / Jan 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN24353811108
CLE28342625113
Team box
DEN·CLE
40-94
field goals
43-86
17-47
3-pointers
16-39
11-13
free throws
11-19
32
rebounds
55
26
assists
32
9
turnovers
17
34
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN393467
Donovan MitchellCLE353365
Peyton WatsonDEN402143
Darius GarlandCLE321828
De'Andre HunterCLE261654
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN281522

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +11
DEN +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 9 · DEN 11lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 48%, CLE 52% · Updated Jan 2

Expected margin
CLE by 1.8
Expected score
CLE 121.5 – 119.6 DEN
Expected total
241.1
NuggetsThe matchupCavaliers
+109Our fair odds−109
119.6Expected points121.5
+0.56Power rating+0.41
125.1Points / game119.6
118.0Allowed / game117.1
51.2FG%46.5
39.83P%35.0
44.1Rebounds / game44.8
23−10Season record19−16
6−4Last 105−5
Aaron Gordon · Cameron Johnson
Christian Braun · Jonas Valanciunas
Nikola JokicOutChris Livingston · Larry Nance Jr.
Luke Travers · Max Strus

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · CLE chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+10948%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−10952%————
SpreadCLE by 1.8
DENDenver Nuggets+1.8our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 241.1
Over241.1our total————
Under241.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 1.8 expected
Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%
← DEN wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more45%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more31%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

241.1 expected
191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 231.567%
Total over 241.548%
Total over 251.530%
Total from 232 to 25137%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GJalen Pickettstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FDaRon Holmes IIstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GDarius Garlandstarted
GJaylon Tysonstarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·CLE
Dec 31, 2025 at TOR
last game
Dec 31, 2025 vs PHX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 2, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; injury managementOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENJonas Valanciunas · right calf; strainOut
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; injury managementOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENJamal Murray · left ankle; sprainProbable
DENJulian Strawther · illness; illnessProbable
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEChris Livingston · g league - two-wayOut
CLELarry Nance Jr. · right calf; strainOut
CLELuke Travers · g league - two-wayOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLEDean Wade · left knee; sorenessQuestionable
CLESam Merrill · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
CLEDe'Andre Hunter · illness; illnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
DEN·CLE
+0.56
rating (0 = average)
+0.41
125.1
points / game
119.6
118.0
points allowed / game
117.1
23−10
season record
19−16
10−5
home record
12−8
13−5
away record
7−8
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
51.2
FG%
46.5
39.8
3P%
35.0
44.1
rebounds / game
44.8
29.3
assists / game
27.7
13.3
turnovers / game
14.0
52.4
points in paint / game
49.8

Rating Trend

DEN · CLE · 65 days
Denver NuggetsCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CLE 5−3
Dec 27, 2024at DENCLE 149 − 135
Dec 5, 2024at CLECLE 126 − 114
Mar 31, 2024at DENDEN 130 − 101
Nov 19, 2023at CLECLE 121 − 109
Feb 23, 2023at CLEDEN 115 − 109
Jan 6, 2023at DENDEN 121 − 108
Mar 18, 2022at CLECLE 119 − 116
Oct 25, 2021at DENCLE 99 − 87

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 31, 2025at TOR106 − 103W
Dec 29, 2025at MIA123 − 147L
Dec 27, 2025at ORL126 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025vs MIN142 − 138W
Dec 23, 2025at DAL130 − 131L
Dec 22, 2025vs UTAH135 − 112W
Dec 20, 2025vs HOU101 − 115L
Dec 18, 2025vs ORL126 − 115W
Dec 15, 2025vs HOU128 − 125W
Dec 11, 2025at SAC136 − 105W

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Dec 31, 2025vs PHX129 − 113W
Dec 29, 2025at SA113 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025at HOU100 − 117L
Dec 25, 2025at NY124 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs NO141 − 118W
Dec 22, 2025vs CHA139 − 132W
Dec 19, 2025vs CHI125 − 136L
Dec 17, 2025at CHI111 − 127L
Dec 14, 2025vs CHA111 − 119L
Dec 12, 2025at WSH130 − 126W