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Celtics at Hawks

NBA · Saturday, Jan 17 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final BOS 132 – ATL 106
← NBA / Jan 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS30523515132
ATL23282332106
Team box
BOS·ATL
46-91
field goals
38-102
22-52
3-pointers
15-46
18-22
free throws
15-17
55
rebounds
47
27
assists
29
17
turnovers
12
40
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS304162
Sam HauserBOS303063
Onyeka OkongwuATL332173
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL291826
Corey KispertATL231671
Neemias QuetaBOS241471

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +43
BOS +43
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 2 · BOS 43lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 64%, ATL 36% · Updated Jan 17

Expected margin
BOS by 5.4
Expected score
BOS 118.8 – 113.4 ATL
Expected total
232.2
CelticsThe matchupHawks
−175Our fair odds+175
118.8Expected points113.4
+0.75Power rating−0.05
116.7Points / game117.9
110.2Allowed / game118.9
47.4FG%47.8
36.93P%36.6
44.6Rebounds / game41.7
25−15Season record20−23
6−4Last 105−5
Jayson Tatum · Josh Minott
Payton PritchardOutKristaps Porzingis · N'Faly Dante
Nikola Djurisic · Zaccharie Risacher

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · ATL chance
Our model fair63.6%36.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−17564%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+17536%————
SpreadBOS by 5.4
BOSBoston Celtics−5.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+5.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.2
Over232.2our total————
Under232.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 5.4 expected
Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%
← BOS wins byATL wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more55%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more39%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.2 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GBaylor Scheiermanstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GVit Krejcistarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·ATL
Jan 15 at MIA
last game
Jan 15 at POR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 17, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSJosh Minott · left ankle; sprainOut
BOSPayton Pritchard · left ankle; sorenessOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLKristaps Porzingis · left achilles; tendinitisOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; acl tearOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLZaccharie Risacher · left knee; bone contusionOut
ATLDyson Daniels · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
BOS·ATL
+0.75
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
116.7
points / game
117.9
110.2
points allowed / game
118.9
25−15
season record
20−23
12−7
home record
7−11
13−8
away record
13−12
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
47.4
FG%
47.8
36.9
3P%
36.6
44.6
rebounds / game
41.7
23.8
assists / game
31.0
11.8
turnovers / game
14.8
44.4
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

BOS · ATL · 80 days
Boston CelticsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Jan 18, 2025at BOSATL 119 − 115
Nov 12, 2024at BOSATL 117 − 116
Nov 4, 2024at ATLBOS 123 − 93
Mar 28, 2024at ATLATL 123 − 122
Mar 25, 2024at ATLATL 120 − 118
Feb 7, 2024at BOSBOS 125 − 117
Nov 26, 2023at BOSBOS 113 − 103
Apr 27, 2023at ATLBOS 128 − 120post
Apr 25, 2023at BOSATL 119 − 117post
Apr 23, 2023at ATLBOS 129 − 121post

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 15at MIA119 − 114W
Jan 12at IND96 − 98L
Jan 10vs SA95 − 100L
Jan 9vs TOR125 − 117W
Jan 7vs DEN110 − 114L
Jan 5vs CHI115 − 101W
Jan 3at LAC146 − 115W
Jan 1at SAC120 − 106W
Dec 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 119W
Dec 28, 2025at POR108 − 114L

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jan 15at POR101 − 117L
Jan 13at LAL116 − 141L
Jan 11at GS124 − 111W
Jan 9at DEN110 − 87W
Jan 7vs NO117 − 100W
Jan 5at TOR100 − 118L
Jan 3at TOR117 − 134L
Jan 2at NY111 − 99W
Dec 31, 2025vs MIN126 − 102W
Dec 29, 2025at OKC129 − 140L