bayesRatings

Celtics at Clippers

NBA · Saturday, Jan 3 · 9:30 PM CT · Intuit Dome · Final BOS 146 – LAC 115
← NBA / Jan 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS42294233146
LAC28353616115
Team box
BOS·LAC
53-96
field goals
42-84
24-51
3-pointers
15-38
16-19
free throws
16-17
46
rebounds
30
30
assists
26
6
turnovers
10
50
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS355035
Derrick WhiteBOS372947
Kawhi LeonardLAC342233
John CollinsLAC292220
Derrick Jones Jr.LAC251942
James HardenLAC3418312

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +33
BOS +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 0 · BOS 33lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 60%, LAC 40% · Updated Jan 3

Expected margin
BOS by 3.1
Expected score
BOS 110.4 – 107.3 LAC
Expected total
217.7
CelticsThe matchupClippers
−152Our fair odds+152
110.4Expected points107.3
+0.77Power rating+0.11
117.0Points / game112.3
110.6Allowed / game113.6
47.6FG%47.3
36.53P%36.2
43.8Rebounds / game40.7
21−12Season record12−21
7−3Last 106−4
Amari Williams · Jayson Tatum
Max Shulga · Ron Harper Jr.OutBogdan Bogdanovic · Bradley Beal
Chris Paul

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · LAC chance
Our model fair60.4%39.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−15260%————
LACLA Clippers+15240%————
SpreadBOS by 3.1
BOSBoston Celtics−3.1our margin————
LACLA Clippers+3.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 217.7
Over217.7our total————
Under217.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 3.1 expected
Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 2%LA Clippers by 4 points: 2%LA Clippers by 5 points: 2%LA Clippers by 6 points: 2%LA Clippers by 7 points: 2%LA Clippers by 8 points: 2%LA Clippers by 9 points: 2%LA Clippers by 10 points: 2%LA Clippers by 11 points: 2%LA Clippers by 12 points: 2%LA Clippers by 13 points: 2%LA Clippers by 14 points: 1%LA Clippers by 15 points: 1%LA Clippers by 16 points: 1%LA Clippers by 17 points: 1%LA Clippers by 18 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: <1%LA Clippers by 25 points: <1%LA Clippers by 26 points: <1%LA Clippers by 27 points: <1%LA Clippers by 28 points: <1%LA Clippers by 29 points: <1%LA Clippers by 30 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%
← BOS wins byLAC wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more48%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more34%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

217.7 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 207.570%
Total over 217.550%
Total over 227.530%
Total from 208 to 22739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
LA Clippers
GJames Hardenstarted
GKris Dunnstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FJohn Collinsstarted
CBrook Lopezstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·LAC
Jan 1 at SAC
last game
Jan 1 vs UTAH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 3, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSAmari Williams · g league - two-wayOut
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSMax Shulga · g league - two-wayOut
BOSRon Harper Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
LA Clippers
LACBogdan Bogdanovic · left hamstring; injuryOut
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACChris Paul · management not with teamOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
BOS·LAC
+0.77
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
117.0
points / game
112.3
110.6
points allowed / game
113.6
21−12
season record
12−21
10−5
home record
8−8
11−7
away record
4−13
W2
streak
W6
7−3
last 10
6−4
47.6
FG%
47.3
36.5
3P%
36.2
43.8
rebounds / game
40.7
23.9
assists / game
23.5
12.2
turnovers / game
15.4
43.7
points in paint / game
45.6

Rating Trend

BOS · LAC · 66 days
Boston CelticsLA Clippers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LAC 4−5
Nov 16, 2025at BOSBOS 121 − 118
Jan 22, 2025at LACBOS 117 − 113
Nov 25, 2024at BOSBOS 126 − 94
Jan 27, 2024at BOSLAC 115 − 96
Dec 23, 2023at LACBOS 145 − 108
Dec 29, 2022at BOSBOS 116 − 110
Dec 12, 2022at LACLAC 113 − 93
Dec 29, 2021at BOSLAC 91 − 82
Dec 8, 2021at LACLAC 114 − 111

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jan 1at SAC120 − 106W
Dec 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 119W
Dec 28, 2025at POR108 − 114L
Dec 26, 2025at IND140 − 122W
Dec 22, 2025vs IND103 − 95W
Dec 20, 2025at TOR112 − 96W
Dec 19, 2025vs MIA129 − 116W
Dec 15, 2025vs DET105 − 112L
Dec 11, 2025at MIL101 − 116L
Dec 7, 2025at TOR121 − 113W

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W6
Jan 1vs UTAH118 − 101W
Dec 30, 2025vs SAC131 − 90W
Dec 28, 2025vs DET112 − 99W
Dec 26, 2025at POR119 − 103W
Dec 23, 2025vs HOU128 − 108W
Dec 20, 2025vs LAL103 − 88W
Dec 18, 2025at OKC101 − 122L
Dec 15, 2025vs MEM103 − 121L
Dec 11, 2025at HOU113 − 115L
Dec 6, 2025at MIN106 − 109L