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Hawks at Trail Blazers

NBA · Thursday, Jan 15 · 9:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final ATL 101 – POR 117
← NBA / Jan 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL25313114101
POR33213429117
Team box
ATL·POR
35-81
field goals
43-95
14-44
3-pointers
14-46
17-22
free throws
17-24
40
rebounds
54
23
assists
23
20
turnovers
15
36
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Onyeka OkongwuATL372692
Shaedon SharpePOR332495
CJ McCollumATL292034
Jerami GrantPOR231623
Rayan RupertPOR161332
Jalen JohnsonATL3812116

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +16
ATL +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 16 · ATL 9lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 47%, POR 53% · Updated Jan 15

Expected margin
ATL by 0.5
Expected score
ATL 119.1 – 118.6 POR
Expected total
237.7
HawksThe matchupTrail Blazers
+112Our fair odds−112
119.1Expected points118.6
−0.05Power rating−0.16
118.3Points / game115.8
118.9Allowed / game118.9
47.9FG%44.8
36.73P%33.9
41.7Rebounds / game45.1
20−22Season record19−22
5−5Last 107−3
Caleb Houstan · Kristaps Porzingis
N'Faly Dante · Nikola Djurisic
RayJ DennisOut (5 each)Blake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Deni Avdija · Kris Murray
Matisse Thybulle

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · POR chance
Our model fair47.1%52.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+11247%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers−11253%————
SpreadATL by 0.5
ATLAtlanta Hawks−0.5our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.7
Over237.7our total————
Under237.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 0.5 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%
← ATL wins byPOR wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more41%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more28%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.7 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.568%
Total over 237.549%
Total over 247.531%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GVit Krejcistarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GShaedon Sharpestarted
GSidy Cissokostarted
FToumani Camarastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·POR
Jan 13 at LAL
last game
Jan 13 at GS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 15, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · left achilles; tendinitisOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLZaccharie Risacher · left knee; bone contusionOut
ATLLuke Kennard · neck; sprainProbable
ATLMouhamed Gueye · right lateral ankle; sprainProbable
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORDeni Avdija · lower back; sorenessOut
PORKris Murray · lumbar; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · right knee; tendinopathyOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
PORJerami Grant · left achilles; tendonitisProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
ATL·POR
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
118.3
points / game
115.8
118.9
points allowed / game
118.9
20−22
season record
19−22
7−11
home record
10−10
13−11
away record
9−12
L1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
7−3
47.9
FG%
44.8
36.7
3P%
33.9
41.7
rebounds / game
45.1
31.2
assists / game
24.6
14.7
turnovers / game
16.9
52.4
points in paint / game
47.7

Rating Trend

ATL · POR · 78 days
Atlanta HawksPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · POR 5−3
Apr 1, 2025at ATLPOR 127 − 113
Nov 17, 2024at PORPOR 114 − 110
Mar 27, 2024at ATLATL 120 − 106
Mar 13, 2024at PORPOR 106 − 102
Mar 3, 2023at ATLATL 129 − 111
Jan 30, 2023at PORPOR 129 − 125
Mar 14, 2022at ATLATL 122 − 113
Jan 3, 2022at PORPOR 136 − 131

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 13at LAL116 − 141L
Jan 11at GS124 − 111W
Jan 9at DEN110 − 87W
Jan 7vs NO117 − 100W
Jan 5at TOR100 − 118L
Jan 3at TOR117 − 134L
Jan 2at NY111 − 99W
Dec 31, 2025vs MIN126 − 102W
Dec 29, 2025at OKC129 − 140L
Dec 27, 2025vs NY125 − 128L

POR · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Jan 13at GS97 − 119L
Jan 11vs NY114 − 123L
Jan 9vs HOU111 − 105W
Jan 7vs HOU103 − 102W
Jan 5vs UTAH137 − 117W
Jan 3at SA115 − 110W
Jan 2at NO122 − 109W
Dec 31, 2025at OKC95 − 124L
Dec 29, 2025vs DAL125 − 122W
Dec 28, 2025vs BOS114 − 108W