bayesRatings

Rockets at Trail Blazers

NBA · Friday, Jan 9 · 9:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final HOU 105 – POR 111
← NBA / Jan 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU29273415105
POR28272234111
Team box
HOU·POR
40-96
field goals
37-89
10-44
3-pointers
16-44
15-24
free throws
21-23
56
rebounds
43
21
assists
26
13
turnovers
13
44
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU3930124
Toumani CamaraPOR402522
Amen ThompsonHOU372493
Shaedon SharpePOR352085
Deni AvdijaPOR362036
Reed SheppardHOU342034

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +13
HOU +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 6 · HOU 13lead changes: 24

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 63%, POR 37% · Updated Jan 9

Expected margin
HOU by 5.7
Expected score
HOU 116.9 – 111.2 POR
Expected total
228.2
RocketsThe matchupTrail Blazers
−172Our fair odds+172
116.9Expected points111.2
+0.59Power rating−0.19
118.9Points / game116.5
110.7Allowed / game119.1
48.8FG%44.9
38.73P%34.0
49.1Rebounds / game45.4
22−12Season record18−20
6−4Last 106−4
Alperen Sengun · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · Tristen NewtonOutBlake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Jerami Grant · Jrue Holiday
Kris Murray

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · POR chance
Our model fair63.3%36.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−17263%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+17237%————
SpreadHOU by 5.7
HOUHouston Rockets−5.7our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+5.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.2
Over228.2our total————
Under228.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 5.7 expected
Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%
← HOU wins byPOR wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more56%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more40%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

228.2 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CSteven Adamsstarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GShaedon Sharpestarted
GSidy Cissokostarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·POR
Jan 7 at POR
last game
Jan 7 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 9, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUAlperen Sengun · right ankle; sprainOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · n/a; illnessOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORJerami Grant · left achilles; tendonitisOut
PORJrue Holiday · right calf; strainOut
PORKris Murray · low back; sorenessOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · right knee; tendinopathyOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
HOU·POR
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
118.9
points / game
116.5
110.7
points allowed / game
119.1
22−12
season record
18−20
11−2
home record
9−9
11−10
away record
9−11
L1
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
6−4
48.8
FG%
44.9
38.7
3P%
34.0
49.1
rebounds / game
45.4
25.3
assists / game
24.7
16.0
turnovers / game
16.9
53.4
points in paint / game
48.2

Rating Trend

HOU · POR · 72 days
Houston RocketsPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · POR 4−6
Jan 7at PORPOR 103 − 102
Nov 14, 2025at HOUHOU 140 − 116
Jan 18, 2025at PORHOU 125 − 103
Nov 23, 2024at HOUPOR 104 − 98
Nov 22, 2024at HOUHOU 116 − 88
Apr 12, 2024at PORHOU 116 − 107
Mar 25, 2024at HOUHOU 110 − 92
Mar 8, 2024at PORHOU 123 − 107
Jan 24, 2024at HOUPOR 137 − 131
Feb 26, 2023at PORPOR 131 − 114

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 7at POR102 − 103L
Jan 5vs PHX100 − 97W
Jan 3at DAL104 − 110L
Jan 1at BKN120 − 96W
Dec 29, 2025vs IND126 − 119W
Dec 27, 2025vs CLE117 − 100W
Dec 25, 2025at LAL119 − 96W
Dec 23, 2025at LAC108 − 128L
Dec 21, 2025at SAC124 − 125L
Dec 20, 2025at DEN115 − 101W

POR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jan 7vs HOU103 − 102W
Jan 5vs UTAH137 − 117W
Jan 3at SA115 − 110W
Jan 2at NO122 − 109W
Dec 31, 2025at OKC95 − 124L
Dec 29, 2025vs DAL125 − 122W
Dec 28, 2025vs BOS114 − 108W
Dec 26, 2025vs LAC103 − 119L
Dec 23, 2025vs ORL106 − 110L
Dec 22, 2025vs DET102 − 110L