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Trail Blazers at Warriors

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 13 · 10:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final POR 97 – GS 119
← NBA / Jan 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR2417302697
GS38292824119
Team box
POR·GS
36-83
field goals
42-89
14-47
3-pointers
23-57
11-17
free throws
12-13
45
rebounds
34
20
assists
34
22
turnovers
14
36
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
De'Anthony MeltonGS182321
Shaedon SharpePOR281922
Caleb LovePOR341737
Jimmy Butler IIIGS261665
Brandin PodziemskiGS221541
Moses MoodyGS231423

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +29
POR +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 29 · POR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 35%, GS 65% · Updated Jan 13

Expected margin
GS by 6.4
Expected score
GS 116.5 – 110.1 POR
Expected total
226.7
Trail BlazersThe matchupWarriors
+188Our fair odds−188
110.1Expected points116.5
−0.16Power rating+0.25
116.3Points / game115.4
118.8Allowed / game113.6
44.9FG%45.7
34.03P%35.8
45.1Rebounds / game43.5
19−21Season record21−19
7−3Last 106−4
Blake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Deni Avdija · Kris Murray
Matisse ThybulleOutLJ Cryer · Malevy Leons
Seth Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · GS chance
Our model fair34.7%65.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+18835%————
GSGolden State Warriors−18865%————
SpreadGS by 6.4
PORPortland Trail Blazers+6.4our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−6.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.7
Over226.7our total————
Under226.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 6.4 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 48 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%
← POR wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more57%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more42%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.7 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GCaleb Lovestarted
GShaedon Sharpestarted
GSidy Cissokostarted
FToumani Camarastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·GS
Jan 11 vs NY
last game
Jan 11 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 13, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORDeni Avdija · lower back; sorenessOut
PORKris Murray · lumbar; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · right knee; tendonapthyOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
PORJerami Grant · left achilles; tendonitisDoubtful
Golden State Warriors
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSMalevy Leons · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
POR·GS
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
116.3
points / game
115.4
118.8
points allowed / game
113.6
19−21
season record
21−19
10−10
home record
13−6
9−11
away record
8−13
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
44.9
FG%
45.7
34.0
3P%
35.8
45.1
rebounds / game
43.5
24.8
assists / game
28.4
16.8
turnovers / game
15.7
48.0
points in paint / game
42.9

Rating Trend

POR · GS · 76 days
Portland Trail BlazersGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 7−3
Dec 14, 2025at PORPOR 136 − 131
Nov 21, 2025at GSPOR 127 − 123
Oct 24, 2025at PORPOR 139 − 119
Apr 11, 2025at PORGS 103 − 86
Mar 10, 2025at GSGS 130 − 120
Oct 23, 2024at PORGS 140 − 104
Apr 11, 2024at PORGS 100 − 92
Dec 23, 2023at GSGS 126 − 106
Dec 17, 2023at PORGS 118 − 114
Dec 6, 2023at GSGS 110 − 106

POR · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 11vs NY114 − 123L
Jan 9vs HOU111 − 105W
Jan 7vs HOU103 − 102W
Jan 5vs UTAH137 − 117W
Jan 3at SA115 − 110W
Jan 2at NO122 − 109W
Dec 31, 2025at OKC95 − 124L
Dec 29, 2025vs DAL125 − 122W
Dec 28, 2025vs BOS114 − 108W
Dec 26, 2025vs LAC103 − 119L

GS · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 11vs ATL111 − 124L
Jan 9vs SAC137 − 103W
Jan 7vs MIL120 − 113W
Jan 5at LAC102 − 103L
Jan 3vs UTAH123 − 114W
Jan 2vs OKC94 − 131L
Dec 31, 2025at CHA132 − 125W
Dec 29, 2025at BKN120 − 107W
Dec 28, 2025at TOR127 − 141L
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL126 − 116W