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Bucks at Warriors

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 7 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final MIL 113 – GS 120
← NBA / Jan 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL31222931113
GS31333422120
Team box
MIL·GS
46-85
field goals
44-89
14-32
3-pointers
18-47
7-12
free throws
14-18
36
rebounds
41
29
assists
31
12
turnovers
10
52
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL3134105
Stephen CurryGS343167
De'Anthony MeltonGS252230
Jimmy Butler IIIGS322153
Ryan RollinsMIL351674
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL401549

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +17
MIL +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 17 · MIL 6lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 37%, GS 63% · Updated Jan 7

Expected margin
GS by 4.5
Expected score
GS 114.3 – 109.8 MIL
Expected total
224.1
BucksThe matchupWarriors
+169Our fair odds−169
109.8Expected points114.3
−0.07Power rating+0.23
113.3Points / game114.8
115.5Allowed / game113.6
48.6FG%45.3
39.63P%35.9
40.5Rebounds / game43.5
16−20Season record19−18
5−5Last 106−4
Alex Antetokounmpo · Mark Sears
Pete Nance · Taurean PrinceOutLJ Cryer · Malevy Leons
Seth Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · GS chance
Our model fair37.2%62.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+16937%————
GSGolden State Warriors−16963%————
SpreadGS by 4.5
MILMilwaukee Bucks+4.5our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−4.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.1
Over224.1our total————
Under224.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 4.5 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%
← MIL wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more52%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more37%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.1 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.568%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.529%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·GS
Jan 4 at SAC
last game
Jan 5 at LAC
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 7, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILMark Sears · g league - two-wayOut
MILPete Nance · g league - two-wayOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
Golden State Warriors
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSMalevy Leons · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSGary Payton II · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
GSDraymond Green · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
MIL·GS
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
113.3
points / game
114.8
115.5
points allowed / game
113.6
16−20
season record
19−18
9−9
home record
11−5
7−11
away record
8−13
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
48.6
FG%
45.3
39.6
3P%
35.9
40.5
rebounds / game
43.5
26.2
assists / game
28.0
14.9
turnovers / game
15.9
44.8
points in paint / game
42.1

Rating Trend

MIL · GS · 70 days
Milwaukee BucksGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · GS 5−4
Oct 30, 2025at MILMIL 120 − 110
Mar 18, 2025at GSGS 104 − 93
Feb 10, 2025at MILGS 125 − 111
Mar 6, 2024at GSGS 125 − 90
Jan 13, 2024at MILMIL 129 − 118
Mar 11, 2023at GSGS 125 − 116
Dec 13, 2022at MILMIL 128 − 111
Mar 12, 2022at GSGS 122 − 109
Jan 13, 2022at MILMIL 118 − 99

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 4at SAC115 − 98W
Jan 2vs CHA122 − 121W
Dec 31, 2025vs WSH113 − 114L
Dec 29, 2025at CHA123 − 113W
Dec 27, 2025at CHI112 − 103W
Dec 26, 2025at MEM104 − 125L
Dec 23, 2025at IND111 − 94W
Dec 21, 2025at MIN100 − 103L
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR105 − 111L
Dec 14, 2025at BKN82 − 127L

GS · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 5at LAC102 − 103L
Jan 3vs UTAH123 − 114W
Jan 2vs OKC94 − 131L
Dec 31, 2025at CHA132 − 125W
Dec 29, 2025at BKN120 − 107W
Dec 28, 2025at TOR127 − 141L
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL126 − 116W
Dec 22, 2025vs ORL120 − 97W
Dec 20, 2025vs PHX119 − 116W
Dec 18, 2025at PHX98 − 99L