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Bucks at Kings

NBA · Sunday, Jan 4 · 8:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final MIL 115 – SAC 98
← NBA / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL28342330115
SAC2618252998
Team box
MIL·SAC
39-87
field goals
34-80
10-37
3-pointers
5-25
27-30
free throws
25-32
48
rebounds
38
23
assists
17
13
turnovers
10
48
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL3237111
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL4025410
Russell WestbrookSAC382163
Zach LaVineSAC362034
Myles TurnerMIL321550
Dennis SchroderSAC261335

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +26
MIL +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 5 · MIL 26lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 51%, SAC 49% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
MIL by 1.9
Expected score
MIL 116.6 – 114.7 SAC
Expected total
231.3
BucksThe matchupKings
−106Our fair odds+106
116.6Expected points114.7
−0.08Power rating−0.36
113.3Points / game110.6
116.0Allowed / game122.5
48.7FG%46.0
40.03P%34.7
40.3Rebounds / game40.7
15−20Season record8−27
5−5Last 102−8
Alex Antetokounmpo · Mark Sears
Pete Nance · Taurean PrinceOut (4 each)Daeqwon Plowden · Domantas Sabonis
Dylan Cardwell · Isaiah Stevens

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · SAC chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks−10651%————
SACSacramento Kings+10649%————
SpreadMIL by 1.9
MILMilwaukee Bucks−1.9our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.3
Over231.3our total————
Under231.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 1.9 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%
← MIL wins bySAC wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more45%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more31%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

231.3 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GKevin Porter Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
FKeegan Murraystarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·SAC
Jan 2 vs CHA
last game
Jan 2 at PHX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 4, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILMark Sears · g league - two-wayOut
MILPete Nance · g league - two-wayOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILGary Harris · neck; strainQuestionable
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · right calf; injury managementProbable
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; partial meniscus tearOut
SACDylan Cardwell · g league - two-wayOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
MIL·SAC
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
113.3
points / game
110.6
116.0
points allowed / game
122.5
15−20
season record
8−27
9−9
home record
5−11
6−11
away record
3−16
W1
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
2−8
48.7
FG%
46.0
40.0
3P%
34.7
40.3
rebounds / game
40.7
26.3
assists / game
25.3
14.9
turnovers / game
14.5
44.7
points in paint / game
48.3

Rating Trend

MIL · SAC · 67 days
Milwaukee BucksSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SAC 2−7
Nov 1, 2025at MILSAC 135 − 133
Mar 22, 2025at SACMIL 114 − 108
Jan 14, 2025at MILMIL 130 − 115
Mar 12, 2024at SACSAC 129 − 94
Jan 14, 2024at MILMIL 143 − 142
Mar 13, 2023at SACMIL 133 − 124
Dec 7, 2022at MILMIL 126 − 113
Mar 16, 2022at SACMIL 135 − 126
Jan 22, 2022at MILMIL 133 − 127

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jan 2vs CHA122 − 121W
Dec 31, 2025vs WSH113 − 114L
Dec 29, 2025at CHA123 − 113W
Dec 27, 2025at CHI112 − 103W
Dec 26, 2025at MEM104 − 125L
Dec 23, 2025at IND111 − 94W
Dec 21, 2025at MIN100 − 103L
Dec 18, 2025vs TOR105 − 111L
Dec 14, 2025at BKN82 − 127L
Dec 11, 2025vs BOS116 − 101W

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Jan 2at PHX102 − 129L
Jan 1vs BOS106 − 120L
Dec 30, 2025at LAC90 − 131L
Dec 28, 2025at LAL101 − 125L
Dec 27, 2025vs DAL113 − 107W
Dec 23, 2025vs DET127 − 136L
Dec 21, 2025vs HOU125 − 124W
Dec 20, 2025vs POR93 − 98L
Dec 18, 2025at POR133 − 134L
Dec 14, 2025at MIN103 − 117L