bayesRatings

Knicks at Trail Blazers

NBA · Sunday, Jan 11 · 5:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final NY 123 – POR 114
← NBA / Jan 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NY34312533123
POR34262529114
Team box
NY·POR
50-99
field goals
40-84
17-46
3-pointers
12-39
6-8
free throws
22-25
45
rebounds
39
32
assists
24
12
turnovers
15
56
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen BrunsonNY372668
Deni AvdijaPOR382554
OG AnunobyNY342473
Shaedon SharpePOR352363
Caleb LovePOR292144
Karl-Anthony TownsNY2820113

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +11
NY +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 3 · NY 11lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NY 59%, POR 41% · Updated Jan 11

Expected margin
NY by 3.9
Expected score
NY 117.2 – 113.3 POR
Expected total
230.5
KnicksThe matchupTrail Blazers
−141Our fair odds+141
117.2Expected points113.3
+0.39Power rating−0.19
119.5Points / game116.4
114.9Allowed / game118.7
47.3FG%44.8
38.43P%34.1
46.3Rebounds / game45.3
25−14Season record19−20
4−6Last 107−3
Guerschon Yabusele · Landry Shamet
Trey Jemison IIIOutBlake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Jerami Grant · Kris Murray
Matisse Thybulle

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · POR chance
Our model fair58.6%41.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks−14159%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+14141%————
SpreadNY by 3.9
NYNew York Knicks−3.9our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.5
Over230.5our total————
Under230.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 3.9 expected
New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 31 points: 1%New York Knicks by 30 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 19 points: 1%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 13 points: 2%New York Knicks by 12 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%
← NY wins byPOR wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more51%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more36%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.5 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GShaedon Sharpestarted
GSidy Cissokostarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·POR
Jan 9 at PHX
last game
Jan 9 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 11, 5:00 PM ET
New York Knicks
NYGuerschon Yabusele · right quad; contusionOut
NYLandry Shamet · right shoulder; sprainOut
NYTrey Jemison III · g league - two-wayOut
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORJerami Grant · left achilles; tendonitisOut
PORKris Murray · lumbar; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · right knee; tendinopathyOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
NY·POR
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
119.5
points / game
116.4
114.9
points allowed / game
118.7
25−14
season record
19−20
17−4
home record
10−9
8−10
away record
9−11
L1
streak
W5
4−6
last 10
7−3
47.3
FG%
44.8
38.4
3P%
34.1
46.3
rebounds / game
45.3
26.8
assists / game
24.8
13.7
turnovers / game
16.8
47.5
points in paint / game
47.9

Rating Trend

NY · POR · 74 days
New York KnicksPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · POR 2−6
Mar 30, 2025at NYNY 110 − 93
Mar 12, 2025at PORNY 114 − 113
Mar 14, 2024at PORNY 105 − 93
Jan 9, 2024at NYNY 112 − 84
Mar 14, 2023at PORNY 123 − 107
Nov 25, 2022at NYPOR 132 − 129
Mar 16, 2022at NYNY 128 − 98
Feb 12, 2022at PORPOR 112 − 103

NY · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 9at PHX107 − 112L
Jan 7vs LAC123 − 111W
Jan 5at DET90 − 121L
Jan 3vs PHI119 − 130L
Jan 2vs ATL99 − 111L
Dec 31, 2025at SA132 − 134L
Dec 29, 2025at NO130 − 125W
Dec 27, 2025at ATL128 − 125W
Dec 25, 2025vs CLE126 − 124W
Dec 23, 2025at MIN104 − 115L

POR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Jan 9vs HOU111 − 105W
Jan 7vs HOU103 − 102W
Jan 5vs UTAH137 − 117W
Jan 3at SA115 − 110W
Jan 2at NO122 − 109W
Dec 31, 2025at OKC95 − 124L
Dec 29, 2025vs DAL125 − 122W
Dec 28, 2025vs BOS114 − 108W
Dec 26, 2025vs LAC103 − 119L
Dec 23, 2025vs ORL106 − 110L