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Kings at Warriors

NBA · Friday, Jan 9 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final SAC 103 – GS 137
← NBA / Jan 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC29302519103
GS34293440137
Team box
SAC·GS
43-86
field goals
52-95
7-27
3-pointers
19-45
10-13
free throws
14-14
31
rebounds
41
23
assists
39
13
turnovers
11
50
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Stephen CurryGS3227010
DeMar DeRozanSAC352423
De'Anthony MeltonGS191901
Jimmy Butler IIIGS231566
Dennis SchroderSAC201533
Zach LaVineSAC301533

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +35
SAC +35
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 35 · SAC 3lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 28%, GS 72% · Updated Jan 9

Expected margin
GS by 9.1
Expected score
GS 118.0 – 108.9 SAC
Expected total
226.8
KingsThe matchupWarriors
+258Our fair odds−258
108.9Expected points118.0
−0.50Power rating+0.23
109.9Points / game115.0
121.6Allowed / game113.6
45.8FG%45.4
34.13P%36.0
40.7Rebounds / game43.5
8−29Season record20−18
2−8Last 107−3
Daeqwon Plowden · Domantas Sabonis
Isaiah Stevens · Keegan MurrayOutLJ Cryer · Malevy Leons
Seth Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · GS chance
Our model fair28.0%72.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+25828%————
GSGolden State Warriors−25872%————
SpreadGS by 9.1
SACSacramento Kings+9.1our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−9.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.8
Over226.8our total————
Under226.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 9.1 expected
Sacramento Kings by 51 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 50 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 50 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 51 points: <1%
← SAC wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more64%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more49%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.8 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.570%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
GKeon Ellisstarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·GS
Jan 6 vs DAL
last game
Jan 7 vs MIL
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 9, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; partial meniscus tearOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
Golden State Warriors
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSMalevy Leons · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
SAC·GS
−0.50
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
109.9
points / game
115.0
121.6
points allowed / game
113.6
8−29
season record
20−18
5−13
home record
12−5
3−16
away record
8−13
L6
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
7−3
45.8
FG%
45.4
34.1
3P%
36.0
40.7
rebounds / game
43.5
25.0
assists / game
28.1
14.3
turnovers / game
15.8
48.2
points in paint / game
42.1

Rating Trend

SAC · GS · 72 days
Sacramento KingsGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 5−5
Nov 5, 2025at SACSAC 121 − 116
Mar 13, 2025at GSGS 130 − 104
Feb 21, 2025at SACGS 132 − 108
Jan 22, 2025at SACSAC 123 − 117
Jan 5, 2025at GSSAC 129 − 99
Jan 25, 2024at GSSAC 134 − 133
Nov 28, 2023at SACSAC 124 − 123
Nov 1, 2023at GSGS 102 − 101
Oct 27, 2023at SACGS 122 − 114
Apr 30, 2023at SACGS 120 − 100post

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Jan 6vs DAL98 − 100L
Jan 4vs MIL98 − 115L
Jan 2at PHX102 − 129L
Jan 1vs BOS106 − 120L
Dec 30, 2025at LAC90 − 131L
Dec 28, 2025at LAL101 − 125L
Dec 27, 2025vs DAL113 − 107W
Dec 23, 2025vs DET127 − 136L
Dec 21, 2025vs HOU125 − 124W
Dec 20, 2025vs POR93 − 98L

GS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jan 7vs MIL120 − 113W
Jan 5at LAC102 − 103L
Jan 3vs UTAH123 − 114W
Jan 2vs OKC94 − 131L
Dec 31, 2025at CHA132 − 125W
Dec 29, 2025at BKN120 − 107W
Dec 28, 2025at TOR127 − 141L
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL126 − 116W
Dec 22, 2025vs ORL120 − 97W
Dec 20, 2025vs PHX119 − 116W