bayesRatings

Mavericks at Kings

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 6 · 10:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final DAL 100 – SAC 98
← NBA / Jan 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL25213024100
SAC3523202098
Team box
DAL·SAC
39-96
field goals
39-92
8-27
3-pointers
9-31
14-21
free throws
11-17
55
rebounds
43
19
assists
23
17
turnovers
13
58
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
DeMar DeRozanSAC372125
Cooper FlaggDAL352086
Zach LaVineSAC372043
Anthony DavisDAL3619162
Brandon WilliamsDAL271822
Naji MarshallDAL321571

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +12
DAL +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 12 · DAL 2lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 51%, SAC 49% · Updated Jan 6

Expected margin
DAL by 1.7
Expected score
DAL 116.6 – 114.9 SAC
Expected total
231.5
MavericksThe matchupKings
−105Our fair odds+105
116.6Expected points114.9
−0.23Power rating−0.50
113.5Points / game110.3
117.5Allowed / game122.2
47.1FG%45.9
33.33P%34.3
44.4Rebounds / game40.7
13−23Season record8−28
3−7Last 102−8
Dante Exum · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving · Miles Kelly
Moussa CisseOutDomantas Sabonis · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan Murray

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · SAC chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks−10551%————
SACSacramento Kings+10549%————
SpreadDAL by 1.7
DALDallas Mavericks−1.7our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.5
Over231.5our total————
Under231.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 1.7 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%
← DAL wins bySAC wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more44%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more30%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.5 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FAnthony Davisstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·SAC
Jan 3 vs HOU
last game
Jan 4 vs MIL
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 6, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; surgeryOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMiles Kelly · g league - two-wayOut
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayOut
DALP.J. Washington · right ankle; sprainDoubtful
Sacramento Kings
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; partialOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · meniscus tear g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
DAL·SAC
−0.23
rating (0 = average)
−0.50
113.5
points / game
110.3
117.5
points allowed / game
122.2
13−23
season record
8−28
10−10
home record
5−12
3−13
away record
3−16
W1
streak
L5
3−7
last 10
2−8
47.1
FG%
45.9
33.3
3P%
34.3
44.4
rebounds / game
40.7
25.2
assists / game
25.1
15.4
turnovers / game
14.3
53.7
points in paint / game
48.1

Rating Trend

DAL · SAC · 69 days
Dallas MavericksSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SAC 7−3
Dec 27, 2025at SACSAC 113 − 107
Mar 3, 2025at DALSAC 122 − 98
Feb 10, 2025at DALSAC 129 − 128
Dec 30, 2024at SACSAC 110 − 100
Mar 29, 2024at SACDAL 107 − 103
Mar 26, 2024at SACDAL 132 − 96
Jan 27, 2024at DALSAC 120 − 115
Nov 19, 2023at DALSAC 129 − 113
Apr 5, 2023at DALDAL 123 − 119
Feb 11, 2023at SACSAC 133 − 128

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jan 3vs HOU110 − 104W
Jan 1vs PHI108 − 123L
Dec 29, 2025at POR122 − 125L
Dec 27, 2025at SAC107 − 113L
Dec 25, 2025at GS116 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs DEN131 − 130W
Dec 22, 2025at NO113 − 119L
Dec 20, 2025at PHI114 − 121L
Dec 18, 2025vs DET116 − 114W
Dec 15, 2025at UTAH133 − 140L

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Jan 4vs MIL98 − 115L
Jan 2at PHX102 − 129L
Jan 1vs BOS106 − 120L
Dec 30, 2025at LAC90 − 131L
Dec 28, 2025at LAL101 − 125L
Dec 27, 2025vs DAL113 − 107W
Dec 23, 2025vs DET127 − 136L
Dec 21, 2025vs HOU125 − 124W
Dec 20, 2025vs POR93 − 98L
Dec 18, 2025at POR133 − 134L