bayesRatings

Hawks at Warriors

NBA · Sunday, Jan 11 · 7:30 PM CT · Chase Center · Final ATL 124 – GS 111
← NBA / Jan 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL27323530124
GS28252533111
Team box
ATL·GS
46-94
field goals
42-90
15-39
3-pointers
10-42
17-25
free throws
17-21
46
rebounds
48
33
assists
28
9
turnovers
16
46
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Stephen CurryGS333135
Jimmy Butler IIIGS343076
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL342422
Jalen JohnsonATL3323116
Luke KennardATL202211
Onyeka OkongwuATL3318128

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +25
ATL +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 10 · ATL 25lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 35%, GS 65% · Updated Jan 11

Expected margin
GS by 5.3
Expected score
GS 119.3 – 114.0 ATL
Expected total
233.3
HawksThe matchupWarriors
+182Our fair odds−182
114.0Expected points119.3
−0.15Power rating+0.23
118.2Points / game115.5
118.5Allowed / game113.4
47.9FG%45.7
36.93P%36.1
41.9Rebounds / game43.4
19−21Season record21−18
4−6Last 107−3
Caleb Houstan · N'Faly Dante
Nikola Djurisic · RayJ Dennis
Zaccharie RisacherOutLJ Cryer · Malevy Leons
Seth Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · GS chance
Our model fair35.4%64.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+18235%————
GSGolden State Warriors−18265%————
SpreadGS by 5.3
ATLAtlanta Hawks+5.3our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−5.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.3
Over233.3our total————
Under233.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 5.3 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%
← ATL wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more55%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more39%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.3 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GVit Krejcistarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·GS
Jan 9 at DEN
last game
Jan 9 vs SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 11, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLZaccharie Risacher · left knee; inflammationOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · left achilles; tendinitisQuestionable
Golden State Warriors
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSMalevy Leons · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
ATL·GS
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
118.2
points / game
115.5
118.5
points allowed / game
113.4
19−21
season record
21−18
7−11
home record
13−5
12−10
away record
8−13
W2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
7−3
47.9
FG%
45.7
36.9
3P%
36.1
41.9
rebounds / game
43.4
31.1
assists / game
28.4
15.1
turnovers / game
15.7
52.5
points in paint / game
42.6

Rating Trend

ATL · GS · 74 days
Atlanta HawksGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · GS 4−4
Mar 22, 2025at ATLATL 124 − 115
Nov 20, 2024at GSGS 120 − 97
Feb 3, 2024at ATLATL 141 − 134
Jan 24, 2024at GSGS 134 − 112
Mar 17, 2023at ATLATL 127 − 119
Jan 2, 2023at GSGS 143 − 141
Mar 25, 2022at ATLATL 121 − 110
Nov 8, 2021at GSGS 127 − 113

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Jan 9at DEN110 − 87W
Jan 7vs NO117 − 100W
Jan 5at TOR100 − 118L
Jan 3at TOR117 − 134L
Jan 2at NY111 − 99W
Dec 31, 2025vs MIN126 − 102W
Dec 29, 2025at OKC129 − 140L
Dec 27, 2025vs NY125 − 128L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIA111 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs CHI123 − 126L

GS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jan 9vs SAC137 − 103W
Jan 7vs MIL120 − 113W
Jan 5at LAC102 − 103L
Jan 3vs UTAH123 − 114W
Jan 2vs OKC94 − 131L
Dec 31, 2025at CHA132 − 125W
Dec 29, 2025at BKN120 − 107W
Dec 28, 2025at TOR127 − 141L
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL126 − 116W
Dec 22, 2025vs ORL120 − 97W