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Hawks at Nuggets

NBA · Friday, Jan 9 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final ATL 110 – DEN 87
← NBA / Jan 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL30281636110
DEN2822251287
Team box
ATL·DEN
46-94
field goals
30-72
16-43
3-pointers
11-32
2-4
free throws
16-20
40
rebounds
44
31
assists
22
6
turnovers
19
56
points in paint
30
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL352996
Peyton WatsonDEN3425114
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL332283
Dyson DanielsATL36171110
Onyeka OkongwuATL351555
Aaron GordonDEN241495

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +26
ATL +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 5 · ATL 26lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 30%, DEN 70% · Updated Jan 9

Expected margin
DEN by 7.2
Expected score
DEN 126.2 – 119.0 ATL
Expected total
245.2
HawksThe matchupNuggets
+236Our fair odds−236
119.0Expected points126.2
−0.15Power rating+0.50
118.4Points / game124.1
119.4Allowed / game118.1
47.9FG%50.8
36.93P%40.0
41.9Rebounds / game43.2
18−21Season record25−12
3−7Last 105−5
CJ McCollum · Corey Kispert
N'Faly DanteOutCameron Johnson · Jonas Valanciunas
Nikola Jokic · Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · DEN chance
Our model fair29.8%70.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+23630%————
DENDenver Nuggets−23670%————
SpreadDEN by 7.2
ATLAtlanta Hawks+7.2our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−7.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 245.2
Over245.2our total————
Under245.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 7.2 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%
← ATL wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more59%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more44%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

245.2 expected
194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: <1%209 points: <1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 1%230 points: 1%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 2%258 points: 2%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: 1%278 points: 1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%307 points: <1%308 points: <1%309 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 235.566%
Total over 245.548%
Total over 255.530%
Total from 236 to 25536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GVit Krejcistarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJalen Pickettstarted
GChristian Braunstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FHunter Tysonstarted
FDaRon Holmes IIstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·DEN
Jan 7 vs NO
last game
Jan 7 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 9, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCJ McCollum · not with teamOut
ATLCorey Kispert · not with teamOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · right knee; torn aclOut
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayDoubtful
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentDoubtful
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayDoubtful
ATLKristaps Porzingis · left achilles; tendinitisQuestionable
Denver Nuggets
DENCameron Johnson · strain right knee; bone bruiseOut
DENJonas Valanciunas · right calf; strainOut
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; bone bruiseOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENSpencer Jones · left ankle; inflammation; illnessDoubtful
DENJamal Murray · left ankle; sprain; illnessQuestionable
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring;Probable
DENBruce Brown · right knee; inflammationProbable
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
ATL·DEN
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.50
118.4
points / game
124.1
119.4
points allowed / game
118.1
18−21
season record
25−12
7−11
home record
10−5
11−10
away record
15−7
W1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
47.9
FG%
50.8
36.9
3P%
40.0
41.9
rebounds / game
43.2
31.2
assists / game
29.1
15.3
turnovers / game
13.2
52.4
points in paint / game
50.9

Rating Trend

ATL · DEN · 72 days
Atlanta HawksDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DEN 8−1
Dec 5, 2025at ATLDEN 134 − 133
Jan 1, 2025at DENDEN 139 − 120
Dec 8, 2024at ATLDEN 141 − 111
Apr 6, 2024at DENDEN 142 − 110
Dec 11, 2023at ATLDEN 129 − 122
Feb 4, 2023at DENDEN 128 − 108
Dec 2, 2022at ATLATL 117 − 109
Dec 17, 2021at ATLDEN 133 − 115
Nov 12, 2021at DENDEN 105 − 96

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Jan 7vs NO117 − 100W
Jan 5at TOR100 − 118L
Jan 3at TOR117 − 134L
Jan 2at NY111 − 99W
Dec 31, 2025vs MIN126 − 102W
Dec 29, 2025at OKC129 − 140L
Dec 27, 2025vs NY125 − 128L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIA111 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs CHI123 − 126L
Dec 21, 2025vs CHI150 − 152L

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 7at BOS114 − 110W
Jan 5at PHI125 − 124W
Jan 4at BKN115 − 127L
Jan 2at CLE108 − 113L
Dec 31, 2025at TOR106 − 103W
Dec 29, 2025at MIA123 − 147L
Dec 27, 2025at ORL126 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025vs MIN142 − 138W
Dec 23, 2025at DAL130 − 131L
Dec 22, 2025vs UTAH135 − 112W