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Nuggets at 76ers

NBA · Monday, Jan 5 · 7:30 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final DEN 125 – PHI 124
← NBA / Jan 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
DEN292929335125
PHI263235274124
Team box
DEN·PHI
43-81
field goals
46-98
18-37
3-pointers
17-45
21-28
free throws
15-19
38
rebounds
42
26
assists
28
19
turnovers
14
42
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Joel EmbiidPHI4032102
Jalen PickettDEN422957
Tyrese MaxeyPHI462866
Peyton WatsonDEN442474
Zeke NnajiDEN322181
Bruce BrownDEN391962

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +9
DEN +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: PHI 9 · DEN 9lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 65%, PHI 35% · Updated Jan 5

Expected margin
DEN by 5.4
Expected score
DEN 120.7 – 115.2 PHI
Expected total
235.9
NuggetsThe matchup76ers
−188Our fair odds+188
120.7Expected points115.2
+0.56Power rating−0.31
124.3Points / game117.0
118.1Allowed / game116.1
50.9FG%45.2
39.63P%36.1
43.4Rebounds / game44.8
23−12Season record19−14
4−6Last 106−4
Aaron Gordon · Cameron Johnson
Christian Braun · Jamal Murray
Jonas ValanciunasOutJohni Broome · Kelly Oubre Jr.
MarJon Beauchamp · Trendon Watford

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · PHI chance
Our model fair65.3%34.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−18865%————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+18835%————
SpreadDEN by 5.4
DENDenver Nuggets−5.4our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+5.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.9
Over235.9our total————
Under235.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 5.4 expected
Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%
← DEN wins byPHI wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more55%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more39%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.9 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.569%
Total over 235.550%
Total over 245.531%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GBruce Brownstarted
GJalen Pickettstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FDaRon Holmes IIstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
Philadelphia 76ers
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·PHI
Jan 4 at BKN
last game
Jan 3 at NY
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
6th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 5, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; bone bruiseOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENJamal Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
DENJonas Valanciunas · right calf; strainOut
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; bone bruiseOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENTim Hardaway Jr. · illness; managementOut
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJohni Broome · g league - on assignmentOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · left knee; sprainOut
PHIMarJon Beauchamp · g league - two-wayOut
PHITrendon Watford · left adductor; strainOut
PHIJoel Embiid · left knee; injury management; right ankle sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
DEN·PHI
+0.56
rating (0 = average)
−0.31
124.3
points / game
117.0
118.1
points allowed / game
116.1
23−12
season record
19−14
10−5
home record
9−8
13−7
away record
10−6
L2
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
6−4
50.9
FG%
45.2
39.6
3P%
36.1
43.4
rebounds / game
44.8
29.2
assists / game
24.8
13.1
turnovers / game
14.2
51.8
points in paint / game
48.3

Rating Trend

DEN · PHI · 68 days
Denver NuggetsPhiladelphia 76ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · PHI 3−5
Jan 31, 2025at PHIDEN 137 − 134
Jan 21, 2025at DENDEN 144 − 109
Jan 27, 2024at DENDEN 111 − 105
Jan 16, 2024at PHIPHI 126 − 121
Mar 27, 2023at DENDEN 116 − 111
Jan 28, 2023at PHIPHI 126 − 119
Mar 14, 2022at PHIDEN 114 − 110
Nov 18, 2021at DENPHI 103 − 89

DEN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jan 4at BKN115 − 127L
Jan 2at CLE108 − 113L
Dec 31, 2025at TOR106 − 103W
Dec 29, 2025at MIA123 − 147L
Dec 27, 2025at ORL126 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025vs MIN142 − 138W
Dec 23, 2025at DAL130 − 131L
Dec 22, 2025vs UTAH135 − 112W
Dec 20, 2025vs HOU101 − 115L
Dec 18, 2025vs ORL126 − 115W

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jan 3at NY130 − 119W
Jan 1at DAL123 − 108W
Dec 30, 2025at MEM139 − 136W
Dec 28, 2025at OKC104 − 129L
Dec 26, 2025at CHI102 − 109L
Dec 23, 2025vs BKN106 − 114L
Dec 20, 2025vs DAL121 − 114W
Dec 19, 2025at NY116 − 107W
Dec 14, 2025at ATL117 − 120L
Dec 12, 2025vs IND115 − 105W