bayesRatings

Nuggets at Celtics

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 7 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final DEN 114 – BOS 110
← NBA / Jan 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN31272135114
BOS35232428110
Team box
DEN·BOS
39-87
field goals
43-95
20-44
3-pointers
15-38
16-24
free throws
9-15
39
rebounds
53
27
assists
16
9
turnovers
14
26
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS343374
Peyton WatsonDEN373062
Jamal MurrayDEN3722817
Derrick WhiteBOS341744
Payton PritchardBOS341752
Anfernee SimonsBOS261542

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +13
DEN +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 9 · DEN 13lead changes: 26

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 37%, BOS 63% · Updated Jan 7

Expected margin
BOS by 6.2
Expected score
BOS 118.4 – 112.2 DEN
Expected total
230.6
NuggetsThe matchupCeltics
+173Our fair odds−173
112.2Expected points118.4
+0.50Power rating+0.83
124.4Points / game117.8
118.3Allowed / game110.5
51.0FG%47.6
39.93P%36.9
43.3Rebounds / game44.1
24−12Season record23−12
4−6Last 108−2
Cameron Johnson · Jonas Valanciunas
Nikola Jokic · Tamar BatesOutAmari Williams · Jayson Tatum
Josh Minott · Max Shulga
Ron Harper Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · BOS chance
Our model fair36.7%63.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+17337%————
BOSBoston Celtics−17363%————
SpreadBOS by 6.2
DENDenver Nuggets+6.2our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−6.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.6
Over230.6our total————
Under230.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 6.2 expected
Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%
← DEN wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more57%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more41%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.6 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FDaRon Holmes IIstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·BOS
Jan 5 at PHI
last game
Jan 5 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
7th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 7, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENCameron Johnson · right knee; bone bruiseOut
DENJonas Valanciunas · right calf; strainOut
DENNikola Jokic · left knee; bone bruiseOut
DENTamar Bates · left foot; surgeryOut
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainProbable
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainProbable
DENJalen Pickett · left shin; contusionProbable
DENJamal Murray · left ankle; sprainProbable
DENSpencer Jones · illness; illnessProbable
DENTim Hardaway Jr. · illness; managementProbable
Boston Celtics
BOSAmari Williams · g league - two-wayOut
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSJosh Minott · left ankle; sprainOut
BOSMax Shulga · g league - two-wayOut
BOSRon Harper Jr. · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
DEN·BOS
+0.50
rating (0 = average)
+0.83
124.4
points / game
117.8
118.3
points allowed / game
110.5
24−12
season record
23−12
10−5
home record
11−5
14−7
away record
12−7
W1
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
8−2
51.0
FG%
47.6
39.9
3P%
36.9
43.3
rebounds / game
44.1
29.1
assists / game
24.0
13.3
turnovers / game
11.9
51.6
points in paint / game
43.6

Rating Trend

DEN · BOS · 70 days
Denver NuggetsBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · BOS 5−3
Mar 2, 2025at BOSBOS 110 − 103
Jan 7, 2025at DENBOS 118 − 106
Mar 7, 2024at DENDEN 115 − 109
Jan 19, 2024at BOSDEN 102 − 100
Jan 1, 2023at DENDEN 123 − 111
Nov 11, 2022at BOSBOS 131 − 112
Mar 20, 2022at DENBOS 124 − 104
Feb 11, 2022at BOSBOS 108 − 102

DEN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jan 5at PHI125 − 124W
Jan 4at BKN115 − 127L
Jan 2at CLE108 − 113L
Dec 31, 2025at TOR106 − 103W
Dec 29, 2025at MIA123 − 147L
Dec 27, 2025at ORL126 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025vs MIN142 − 138W
Dec 23, 2025at DAL130 − 131L
Dec 22, 2025vs UTAH135 − 112W
Dec 20, 2025vs HOU101 − 115L

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Jan 5vs CHI115 − 101W
Jan 3at LAC146 − 115W
Jan 1at SAC120 − 106W
Dec 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 119W
Dec 28, 2025at POR108 − 114L
Dec 26, 2025at IND140 − 122W
Dec 22, 2025vs IND103 − 95W
Dec 20, 2025at TOR112 − 96W
Dec 19, 2025vs MIA129 − 116W
Dec 15, 2025vs DET105 − 112L