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Spurs at Celtics

NBA · Saturday, Jan 10 · 7:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final SA 100 – BOS 95
← NBA / Jan 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA21292327100
BOS2629202095
Team box
SA·BOS
38-95
field goals
38-93
10-44
3-pointers
16-44
14-20
free throws
3-4
53
rebounds
52
22
assists
22
8
turnovers
10
40
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Derrick WhiteBOS422993
Jaylen BrownBOS432787
De'Aaron FoxSA362196
Victor WembanyamaSA262161
Keldon JohnsonSA2818101
Julian ChampagnieSA3512133

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +9
SA +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 9 · SA 5lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 29%, BOS 71% · Updated Jan 10

Expected margin
BOS by 9.0
Expected score
BOS 117.7 – 108.7 SA
Expected total
226.3
SpursThe matchupCeltics
+242Our fair odds−242
108.7Expected points117.7
+0.16Power rating+0.83
118.8Points / game117.8
113.6Allowed / game110.7
47.7FG%47.7
35.03P%37.3
46.4Rebounds / game44.2
26−12Season record24−13
6−4Last 108−2
David Jones Garcia · Devin Vassell
Harrison Ingram · Stanley UmudeOutJayson Tatum · Josh Minott

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · BOS chance
Our model fair29.3%70.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+24229%————
BOSBoston Celtics−24271%————
SpreadBOS by 9.0
SASan Antonio Spurs+9our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−9our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.3
Over226.3our total————
Under226.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 9.0 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 51 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 50 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 51 points: <1%
← SA wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more64%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more49%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.3 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
CLuke Kornetstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
GHugo Gonzalezstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·BOS
Jan 7 vs LAL
last game
Jan 9 vs TOR
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 10, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SADevin Vassell · left adductor; strainOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayOut
SAJulian Champagnie · mid back; sorenessQuestionable
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSJosh Minott · left ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
SA·BOS
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.83
118.8
points / game
117.8
113.6
points allowed / game
110.7
26−12
season record
24−13
13−5
home record
12−6
13−7
away record
12−7
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
8−2
47.7
FG%
47.7
35.0
3P%
37.3
46.4
rebounds / game
44.2
26.0
assists / game
23.9
13.9
turnovers / game
11.9
51.1
points in paint / game
44.2

Rating Trend

SA · BOS · 73 days
San Antonio SpursBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · BOS 6−2
Mar 29, 2025at SABOS 121 − 111
Feb 12, 2025at BOSBOS 116 − 103
Jan 17, 2024at BOSBOS 117 − 98
Dec 31, 2023at SABOS 134 − 101
Mar 26, 2023at BOSBOS 137 − 93
Jan 7, 2023at SABOS 121 − 116
Jan 5, 2022at BOSSA 99 − 97
Nov 26, 2021at SASA 96 − 88

SA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 7vs LAL107 − 91W
Jan 6at MEM105 − 106L
Jan 3vs POR110 − 115L
Jan 2at IND123 − 113W
Dec 31, 2025vs NY134 − 132W
Dec 29, 2025vs CLE101 − 113L
Dec 27, 2025vs UTAH114 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025at OKC117 − 102W
Dec 23, 2025vs OKC130 − 110W
Dec 21, 2025at WSH124 − 113W

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Jan 9vs TOR125 − 117W
Jan 7vs DEN110 − 114L
Jan 5vs CHI115 − 101W
Jan 3at LAC146 − 115W
Jan 1at SAC120 − 106W
Dec 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 119W
Dec 28, 2025at POR108 − 114L
Dec 26, 2025at IND140 − 122W
Dec 22, 2025vs IND103 − 95W
Dec 20, 2025at TOR112 − 96W