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Lakers at Spurs

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 7 · 8:30 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final LAL 91 – SA 107
← NBA / Jan 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL2320252391
SA26223128107
Team box
LAL·SA
34-86
field goals
40-82
9-39
3-pointers
4-25
14-22
free throws
23-28
45
rebounds
50
16
assists
24
17
turnovers
15
40
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL38381010
Keldon JohnsonSA282760
Victor WembanyamaSA2616142
Jake LaRaviaLAL391671
Stephon CastleSA291554
De'Aaron FoxSA341435

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +16
LAL +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 16 · LAL 4lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 46%, SA 54% · Updated Jan 7

Expected margin
SA by 2.1
Expected score
SA 117.8 – 115.7 LAL
Expected total
233.4
LakersThe matchupSpurs
+119Our fair odds−119
115.7Expected points117.8
+0.20Power rating+0.16
117.1Points / game119.2
116.9Allowed / game114.2
50.1FG%47.7
34.43P%35.5
41.2Rebounds / game46.4
23−11Season record25−12
6−4Last 106−4
Adou Thiero · Austin Reaves
Rui HachimuraOutDevin Vassell

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · SA chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers+11946%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−11954%————
SpreadSA by 2.1
LALLos Angeles Lakers+2.1our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.4
Over233.4our total————
Under233.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 2.1 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%
← LAL wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more46%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more32%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.4 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
FJarred Vanderbiltstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
CLuke Kornetstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·SA
Jan 6 at NO
last game
Jan 6 at MEM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 7, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · right mcl; sprainOut
LALAustin Reaves · left calf; strainOut
LALRui Hachimura · right calf; strainOut
LALLeBron James · left foot joint arthritis; & right sciaticaQuestionable
San Antonio Spurs
SADevin Vassell · left adductor; strainOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayQuestionable
SAStanley Umude · g league - two-wayQuestionable
SAVictor Wembanyama · left knee; bone bruiseQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
LAL·SA
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
117.1
points / game
119.2
116.9
points allowed / game
114.2
23−11
season record
25−12
10−6
home record
12−5
13−5
away record
13−7
W3
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
6−4
50.1
FG%
47.7
34.4
3P%
35.5
41.2
rebounds / game
46.4
25.1
assists / game
26.1
15.5
turnovers / game
13.9
51.7
points in paint / game
50.6

Rating Trend

LAL · SA · 70 days
Los Angeles LakersSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 3−7
Dec 10, 2025at LALSA 132 − 119
Nov 5, 2025at LALLAL 118 − 116
Mar 17, 2025at LALLAL 125 − 109
Jan 13, 2025at LALSA 126 − 102
Nov 27, 2024at SALAL 119 − 101
Nov 15, 2024at SALAL 120 − 115
Feb 23, 2024at LALLAL 123 − 118
Dec 15, 2023at SASA 129 − 115
Dec 13, 2023at SALAL 122 − 119
Jan 25, 2023at LALLAL 113 − 104

LAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Jan 6at NO111 − 103W
Jan 4vs MEM120 − 114W
Jan 2vs MEM128 − 121W
Dec 30, 2025vs DET106 − 128L
Dec 28, 2025vs SAC125 − 101W
Dec 25, 2025vs HOU96 − 119L
Dec 23, 2025at PHX108 − 132L
Dec 20, 2025at LAC88 − 103L
Dec 18, 2025at UTAH143 − 135W
Dec 14, 2025at PHX116 − 114W

SA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jan 6at MEM105 − 106L
Jan 3vs POR110 − 115L
Jan 2at IND123 − 113W
Dec 31, 2025vs NY134 − 132W
Dec 29, 2025vs CLE101 − 113L
Dec 27, 2025vs UTAH114 − 127L
Dec 25, 2025at OKC117 − 102W
Dec 23, 2025vs OKC130 − 110W
Dec 21, 2025at WSH124 − 113W
Dec 19, 2025at ATL126 − 98W