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Celtics at Pacers

NBA · Monday, Jan 12 · 6:30 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final BOS 96 – IND 98
← NBA / Jan 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS2432211996
IND1934261998
Team box
BOS·IND
40-88
field goals
39-84
9-35
3-pointers
16-37
7-9
free throws
4-6
46
rebounds
40
22
assists
29
12
turnovers
12
54
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Payton PritchardBOS372348
Pascal SiakamIND342186
Jay HuffIND282032
Derrick WhiteBOS361845
Anfernee SimonsBOS241634
Neemias QuetaBOS321582

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +13
BOS +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 13 · BOS 9lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 69%, IND 31% · Updated Jan 12

Expected margin
BOS by 7.8
Expected score
BOS 117.1 – 109.2 IND
Expected total
226.3
CelticsThe matchupPacers
−225Our fair odds+225
117.1Expected points109.2
+0.83Power rating−0.22
117.2Points / game111.2
110.4Allowed / game119.0
47.5FG%44.4
37.23P%34.5
44.4Rebounds / game42.7
24−14Season record8−31
7−3Last 102−8
Jayson Tatum · Josh MinottOutBennedict Mathurin · Isaiah Jackson
Obi Toppin · Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · IND chance
Our model fair69.2%30.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−22569%————
INDIndiana Pacers+22531%————
SpreadBOS by 7.8
BOSBoston Celtics−7.8our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+7.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.3
Over226.3our total————
Under226.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 7.8 expected
Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%
← BOS wins byIND wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more62%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more46%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.3 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
GBaylor Scheiermanstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·IND
Jan 10 vs SA
last game
Jan 10 vs MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 11, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSJosh Minott · left ankle; sprainOut
BOSJaylen Brown · low back; spasmsDoubtful
BOSSam Hauser · right hamstring; tightnessQuestionable
Indiana Pacers
INDBennedict Mathurin · right thumb; sprainOut
INDIsaiah Jackson · n/a; concussionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDAndrew Nembhard · low back; sorenessQuestionable
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayQuestionable
INDKam Jones · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
BOS·IND
+0.83
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
117.2
points / game
111.2
110.4
points allowed / game
119.0
24−14
season record
8−31
12−7
home record
6−15
12−7
away record
2−16
L1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
2−8
47.5
FG%
44.4
37.2
3P%
34.5
44.4
rebounds / game
42.7
23.9
assists / game
24.8
11.8
turnovers / game
14.2
44.0
points in paint / game
44.9

Rating Trend

BOS · IND · 75 days
Boston CelticsIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 2−8
Dec 26, 2025at INDBOS 140 − 122
Dec 22, 2025at BOSBOS 103 − 95
Dec 29, 2024at BOSIND 123 − 114
Dec 27, 2024at BOSBOS 142 − 105
Oct 30, 2024at INDIND 135 − 132
May 27, 2024at INDBOS 105 − 102post
May 25, 2024at INDBOS 114 − 111post
May 23, 2024at BOSBOS 126 − 110post
May 21, 2024at BOSBOS 133 − 128post
Jan 30, 2024at BOSBOS 129 − 124

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 10vs SA95 − 100L
Jan 9vs TOR125 − 117W
Jan 7vs DEN110 − 114L
Jan 5vs CHI115 − 101W
Jan 3at LAC146 − 115W
Jan 1at SAC120 − 106W
Dec 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 119W
Dec 28, 2025at POR108 − 114L
Dec 26, 2025at IND140 − 122W
Dec 22, 2025vs IND103 − 95W

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
Jan 10vs MIA123 − 99W
Jan 8at CHA114 − 112W
Jan 6vs CLE116 − 120L
Jan 4at ORL127 − 135L
Jan 2vs SA113 − 123L
Dec 31, 2025vs ORL110 − 112L
Dec 29, 2025at HOU119 − 126L
Dec 27, 2025at MIA116 − 142L
Dec 26, 2025vs BOS122 − 140L
Dec 23, 2025vs MIL94 − 111L