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Pacers at Magic

NBA · Sunday, Jan 4 · 2:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final IND 127 – ORL 135
← NBA / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND36224227127
ORL28413828135
Team box
IND·ORL
48-87
field goals
47-84
15-34
3-pointers
15-32
16-21
free throws
26-34
41
rebounds
36
38
assists
34
11
turnovers
7
50
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Pascal SiakamIND363475
Desmond BaneORL373166
Paolo BancheroORL3628125
Anthony BlackORL3627310
Aaron NesmithIND342548
Andrew NembhardIND3520111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +13
IND +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 13 · IND 12lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 38%, ORL 62% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
ORL by 4.8
Expected score
ORL 113.2 – 108.4 IND
Expected total
221.7
PacersThe matchupMagic
+163Our fair odds−163
108.4Expected points113.2
−0.18Power rating+0.08
110.1Points / game116.5
119.3Allowed / game115.1
43.9FG%46.7
33.33P%33.3
42.8Rebounds / game44.7
6−29Season record19−16
0−10Last 104−6
Bennedict Mathurin · Isaiah Jackson
Obi Toppin · Tyrese HaliburtonOut (4 each)Colin Castleton · Franz Wagner
Jalen Suggs · Moritz Wagner

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · ORL chance
Our model fair38.1%61.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+16338%————
ORLOrlando Magic−16362%————
SpreadORL by 4.8
INDIndiana Pacers+4.8our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic−4.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.7
Over221.7our total————
Under221.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 4.8 expected
Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 46 points: <1%
← IND wins byORL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more53%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more38%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.7 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.570%
Total over 221.550%
Total over 231.530%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CMicah Potterstarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·ORL
Jan 2 vs SA
last game
Jan 2 at CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 4, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDBennedict Mathurin · right thumb; sprainOut
INDIsaiah Jackson · n/a; concussionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprainOut
ORLJalen Suggs · right knee; grade 1 mcl contusionOut
ORLMoritz Wagner · left knee; injury recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
IND·ORL
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
110.1
points / game
116.5
119.3
points allowed / game
115.1
6−29
season record
19−16
5−14
home record
11−6
1−15
away record
8−10
L11
streak
L1
0−10
last 10
4−6
43.9
FG%
46.7
33.3
3P%
33.3
42.8
rebounds / game
44.7
23.9
assists / game
26.1
14.1
turnovers / game
13.9
44.7
points in paint / game
54.1

Rating Trend

IND · ORL · 67 days
Indiana PacersOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ORL 7−3
Dec 31, 2025at INDORL 112 − 110
Apr 11, 2025at INDORL 129 − 115
Nov 13, 2024at ORLORL 94 − 90
Nov 6, 2024at INDIND 118 − 111
Oct 28, 2024at ORLORL 119 − 115
Mar 10, 2024at ORLIND 111 − 97
Dec 23, 2023at INDORL 117 − 110
Nov 19, 2023at INDORL 128 − 116
Feb 25, 2023at ORLIND 121 − 108
Jan 25, 2023at ORLORL 126 − 120

IND · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Jan 2vs SA113 − 123L
Dec 31, 2025vs ORL110 − 112L
Dec 29, 2025at HOU119 − 126L
Dec 27, 2025at MIA116 − 142L
Dec 26, 2025vs BOS122 − 140L
Dec 23, 2025vs MIL94 − 111L
Dec 22, 2025at BOS95 − 103L
Dec 20, 2025at NO109 − 128L
Dec 18, 2025vs NY113 − 114L
Dec 14, 2025vs WSH89 − 108L

ORL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 2at CHI114 − 121L
Dec 31, 2025at IND112 − 110W
Dec 29, 2025at TOR106 − 107L
Dec 27, 2025vs DEN127 − 126W
Dec 26, 2025vs CHA105 − 120L
Dec 23, 2025at POR110 − 106W
Dec 22, 2025at GS97 − 120L
Dec 20, 2025at UTAH128 − 127W
Dec 18, 2025at DEN115 − 126L
Dec 13, 2025vs NY120 − 132L