bayesRatings

Pacers at Hornets

NBA · Thursday, Jan 8 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final IND 114 – CHA 112
← NBA / Jan 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND33273024114
CHA30282925112
Team box
IND·CHA
41-82
field goals
39-86
12-27
3-pointers
16-44
20-21
free throws
18-24
41
rebounds
35
25
assists
29
20
turnovers
17
52
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
LaMelo BallCHA273338
Pascal SiakamIND3630143
T.J. McConnellIND282348
Miles BridgesCHA361964
Kon KnueppelCHA291883
Aaron NesmithIND351652

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +12
IND +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 4 · IND 12lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 55%, CHA 45% · Updated Jan 8

Expected margin
IND by 1.6
Expected score
IND 115.0 – 113.4 CHA
Expected total
228.4
PacersThe matchupHornets
−122Our fair odds+122
115.0Expected points113.4
−0.22Power rating−0.65
110.8Points / game115.5
119.7Allowed / game117.3
44.2FG%45.8
34.03P%37.2
42.5Rebounds / game44.9
6−31Season record13−24
0−10Last 104−6
Bennedict Mathurin · Isaiah Jackson
Obi Toppin · Tyrese HaliburtonOut (4 each)Grant Williams · KJ Simpson
Mason Plumlee · Ryan Kalkbrenner

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · CHA chance
Our model fair55.0%45.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers−12255%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+12245%————
SpreadIND by 1.6
INDIndiana Pacers−1.6our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.4
Over228.4our total————
Under228.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 1.6 expected
Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%
← IND wins byCHA wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more44%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more30%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.4 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GCollin Sextonstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·CHA
Jan 6 vs CLE
last game
Jan 7 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 8, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDBennedict Mathurin · right thumb; sprainOut
INDIsaiah Jackson · n/a; concussionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tornOut
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDAndrew Nembhard · low back; sorenessQuestionable
Charlotte Hornets
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAMason Plumlee · right groin; surgeryOut
CHARyan Kalkbrenner · left elbow; sprainOut
CHABrandon Miller · left knee; contusionProbable
CHALaMelo Ball · right ankle; sorenessProbable
CHATidjane Salaun · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
IND·CHA
−0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.65
110.8
points / game
115.5
119.7
points allowed / game
117.3
6−31
season record
13−24
5−15
home record
7−11
1−16
away record
6−13
L13
streak
L1
0−10
last 10
4−6
44.2
FG%
45.8
34.0
3P%
37.2
42.5
rebounds / game
44.9
24.5
assists / game
26.2
14.0
turnovers / game
15.8
44.8
points in paint / game
47.5

Rating Trend

IND · CHA · 71 days
Indiana PacersCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 5−5
Nov 19, 2025at INDIND 127 − 118
Apr 2, 2025at INDIND 119 − 105
Dec 8, 2024at INDCHA 113 − 109
Nov 8, 2024at CHACHA 103 − 83
Feb 12, 2024at CHACHA 111 − 102
Feb 4, 2024at CHAIND 115 − 99
Dec 20, 2023at INDIND 144 − 113
Nov 4, 2023at INDCHA 125 − 124
Mar 20, 2023at CHACHA 115 − 109
Jan 8, 2023at INDIND 116 − 111

IND · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Jan 6vs CLE116 − 120L
Jan 4at ORL127 − 135L
Jan 2vs SA113 − 123L
Dec 31, 2025vs ORL110 − 112L
Dec 29, 2025at HOU119 − 126L
Dec 27, 2025at MIA116 − 142L
Dec 26, 2025vs BOS122 − 140L
Dec 23, 2025vs MIL94 − 111L
Dec 22, 2025at BOS95 − 103L
Dec 20, 2025at NO109 − 128L

CHA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jan 7vs TOR96 − 97L
Jan 5at OKC124 − 97W
Jan 3at CHI112 − 99W
Jan 2at MIL121 − 122L
Dec 31, 2025vs GS125 − 132L
Dec 29, 2025vs MIL113 − 123L
Dec 26, 2025at ORL120 − 105W
Dec 23, 2025vs WSH126 − 109W
Dec 22, 2025at CLE132 − 139L
Dec 20, 2025at DET86 − 112L