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Cavaliers at Pacers

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 6 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final CLE 120 – IND 116
← NBA / Jan 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE22313136120
IND28323323116
Team box
CLE·IND
49-88
field goals
43-93
10-26
3-pointers
16-35
12-18
free throws
14-19
48
rebounds
32
33
assists
32
19
turnovers
14
64
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Darius GarlandCLE332926
Pascal SiakamIND352243
Evan MobleyCLE362065
Jay HuffIND312022
Jarrett AllenCLE3419124
Sam MerrillCLE311942

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +9
CLE +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 9 · CLE 7lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 60%, IND 40% · Updated Jan 6

Expected margin
CLE by 4.7
Expected score
CLE 119.6 – 115.0 IND
Expected total
234.6
CavaliersThe matchupPacers
−153Our fair odds+153
119.6Expected points115.0
+0.43Power rating−0.22
119.2Points / game110.6
116.8Allowed / game119.7
46.5FG%44.2
35.13P%33.6
45.0Rebounds / game42.8
20−17Season record6−30
5−5Last 100−10
Chris Livingston · Donovan Mitchell
Larry Nance Jr. · Luke Travers
Max StrusOut (5 each)Bennedict Mathurin · Isaiah Jackson
Obi Toppin · Taelon Peter
Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · IND chance
Our model fair60.4%39.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−15360%————
INDIndiana Pacers+15340%————
SpreadCLE by 4.7
CLECleveland Cavaliers−4.7our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.6
Over234.6our total————
Under234.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 4.7 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%
← CLE wins byIND wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more53%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more38%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

234.6 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.549%
Total over 244.530%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GSam Merrillstarted
GDarius Garlandstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·IND
Jan 4 vs DET
last game
Jan 4 at ORL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 6, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEChris Livingston · g league - two-wayOut
CLEDonovan Mitchell · restOut
CLELarry Nance Jr. · right calf; strainOut
CLELuke Travers · g league - two-wayOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLEJaylon Tyson · illness; illnessQuestionable
CLEDean Wade · left knee; contusionProbable
CLEJarrett Allen · illness; illnessProbable
Indiana Pacers
INDBennedict Mathurin · right thumb; sprainOut
INDIsaiah Jackson · n/a; concussionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
CLE·IND
+0.43
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
119.2
points / game
110.6
116.8
points allowed / game
119.7
20−17
season record
6−30
13−9
home record
5−14
7−8
away record
1−16
L1
streak
L12
5−5
last 10
0−10
46.5
FG%
44.2
35.1
3P%
33.6
45.0
rebounds / game
42.8
27.7
assists / game
24.2
14.1
turnovers / game
14.0
49.2
points in paint / game
44.8

Rating Trend

CLE · IND · 69 days
Cleveland CavaliersIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 6−4
Dec 1, 2025at INDCLE 135 − 119
Nov 21, 2025at CLECLE 120 − 109
May 13, 2025at CLEIND 114 − 105post
May 11, 2025at INDIND 129 − 109post
May 9, 2025at INDCLE 126 − 104post
May 6, 2025at CLEIND 120 − 119post
May 4, 2025at CLEIND 121 − 112post
Apr 13, 2025at CLEIND 126 − 118
Apr 10, 2025at INDIND 114 − 112
Jan 14, 2025at INDCLE 127 − 117

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 4vs DET110 − 114L
Jan 2vs DEN113 − 108W
Dec 31, 2025vs PHX129 − 113W
Dec 29, 2025at SA113 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025at HOU100 − 117L
Dec 25, 2025at NY124 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs NO141 − 118W
Dec 22, 2025vs CHA139 − 132W
Dec 19, 2025vs CHI125 − 136L
Dec 17, 2025at CHI111 − 127L

IND · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Jan 4at ORL127 − 135L
Jan 2vs SA113 − 123L
Dec 31, 2025vs ORL110 − 112L
Dec 29, 2025at HOU119 − 126L
Dec 27, 2025at MIA116 − 142L
Dec 26, 2025vs BOS122 − 140L
Dec 23, 2025vs MIL94 − 111L
Dec 22, 2025at BOS95 − 103L
Dec 20, 2025at NO109 − 128L
Dec 18, 2025vs NY113 − 114L