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Pistons at Cavaliers

NBA · Sunday, Jan 4 · 1:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final DET 114 – CLE 110
← NBA / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET19472127114
CLE28282628110
Team box
DET·CLE
39-95
field goals
35-80
15-40
3-pointers
14-42
21-21
free throws
26-30
45
rebounds
44
25
assists
23
17
turnovers
17
40
points in paint
30
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE333063
Cade CunninghamDET372767
Daniss JenkinsDET252515
Darius GarlandCLE321626
Evan MobleyCLE331545
Sam MerrillCLE271532

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +13
DET +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 9 · DET 13lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 41%, CLE 59% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
CLE by 3.8
Expected score
CLE 118.8 – 114.9 DET
Expected total
233.7
PistonsThe matchupCavaliers
+141Our fair odds−141
114.9Expected points118.8
+0.30Power rating+0.41
118.9Points / game119.4
112.8Allowed / game116.9
48.6FG%46.6
34.93P%35.2
46.4Rebounds / game45.1
25−9Season record20−16
6−4Last 105−5
Bobi Klintman · Caris LeVert
Isaac Jones · Jalen Duren
Tobias HarrisOut (5 each)Chris Livingston · Dean Wade
Jarrett Allen · Larry Nance Jr.
Luke Travers

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CLE chance
Our model fair41.5%58.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons+14141%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−14159%————
SpreadCLE by 3.8
DETDetroit Pistons+3.8our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−3.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.7
Over233.7our total————
Under233.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 3.8 expected
Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%
← DET wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more51%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more35%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.7 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.569%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
FPaul Reedstarted
CIsaiah Stewartstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
GDarius Garlandstarted
GJaylon Tysonstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CLE
Jan 1 vs MIA
last game
Jan 2 vs DEN
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 4, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETCaris LeVert · left knee; tendinopathyOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - on assignmentOut
DETJalen Duren · right ankle; sprainOut
DETTobias Harris · left hip; sprainOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEChris Livingston · g league - two-wayOut
CLEDean Wade · left knee; contusionOut
CLEJarrett Allen · illness; illnessOut
CLELarry Nance Jr. · right calf; strainOut
CLELuke Travers · g league - two-wayOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
DET·CLE
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.41
118.9
points / game
119.4
112.8
points allowed / game
116.9
25−9
season record
20−16
13−3
home record
13−8
12−6
away record
7−8
L1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
5−5
48.6
FG%
46.6
34.9
3P%
35.2
46.4
rebounds / game
45.1
26.7
assists / game
27.8
15.9
turnovers / game
14.1
58.4
points in paint / game
49.8

Rating Trend

DET · CLE · 67 days
Detroit PistonsCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 9−1
Oct 27, 2025at DETCLE 116 − 95
Mar 28, 2025at DETDET 133 − 122
Feb 5, 2025at DETCLE 118 − 115
Jan 27, 2025at CLECLE 110 − 91
Oct 25, 2024at CLECLE 113 − 101
Mar 1, 2024at DETCLE 110 − 100
Jan 31, 2024at CLECLE 128 − 121
Dec 2, 2023at DETCLE 110 − 101
Nov 17, 2023at CLECLE 108 − 100
Mar 4, 2023at CLECLE 114 − 90

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 1vs MIA112 − 118L
Dec 30, 2025at LAL128 − 106W
Dec 28, 2025at LAC99 − 112L
Dec 26, 2025at UTAH129 − 131L
Dec 23, 2025at SAC136 − 127W
Dec 22, 2025at POR110 − 102W
Dec 20, 2025vs CHA112 − 86W
Dec 18, 2025at DAL114 − 116L
Dec 15, 2025at BOS112 − 105W
Dec 12, 2025vs ATL142 − 115W

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Jan 2vs DEN113 − 108W
Dec 31, 2025vs PHX129 − 113W
Dec 29, 2025at SA113 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025at HOU100 − 117L
Dec 25, 2025at NY124 − 126L
Dec 23, 2025vs NO141 − 118W
Dec 22, 2025vs CHA139 − 132W
Dec 19, 2025vs CHI125 − 136L
Dec 17, 2025at CHI111 − 127L
Dec 14, 2025vs CHA111 − 119L