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Raptors at Hornets

NBA · Wednesday, Jan 7 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final TOR 97 – CHA 96
← NBA / Jan 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR2520213197
CHA2228222496
Team box
TOR·CHA
38-92
field goals
32-82
7-34
3-pointers
14-38
14-19
free throws
18-22
42
rebounds
50
18
assists
19
6
turnovers
18
60
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
RJ BarrettTOR352871
Collin SextonCHA242220
Immanuel QuickleyTOR332142
Scottie BarnesTOR291740
LaMelo BallCHA251577
Miles BridgesCHA301235

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +13
TOR +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 13 · TOR 6lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 57%, CHA 43% · Updated Jan 7

Expected margin
TOR by 2.8
Expected score
TOR 113.4 – 110.5 CHA
Expected total
223.9
RaptorsThe matchupHornets
−135Our fair odds+135
113.4Expected points110.5
−0.12Power rating−0.65
114.5Points / game116.1
112.3Allowed / game117.9
47.6FG%45.9
35.23P%37.2
43.4Rebounds / game44.8
22−15Season record13−23
6−4Last 105−5
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Jakob Poeltl
Mo BambaOutGrant Williams · KJ Simpson
Mason Plumlee · Ryan Kalkbrenner

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · CHA chance
Our model fair57.4%42.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors−13557%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+13543%————
SpreadTOR by 2.8
TORToronto Raptors−2.8our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+2.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.9
Over223.9our total————
Under223.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 2.8 expected
Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%
← TOR wins byCHA wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more48%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more33%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.9 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.570%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.531%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
FCollin Murray-Boylesstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GSion Jamesstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·CHA
Jan 5 vs ATL
last game
Jan 5 at OKC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 7, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJakob Poeltl · back; lower - strainOut
TORMo Bamba · not with teamOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAMason Plumlee · right groin; surgeryOut
CHARyan Kalkbrenner · left elbow; sprainOut
CHABrandon Miller · left knee; contusionQuestionable
CHAMoussa Diabate · right wrist; sprainProbable
CHATidjane Salaun · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
TOR·CHA
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.65
114.5
points / game
116.1
112.3
points allowed / game
117.9
22−15
season record
13−23
12−8
home record
7−10
10−7
away record
6−13
W2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
47.6
FG%
45.9
35.2
3P%
37.2
43.4
rebounds / game
44.8
29.4
assists / game
26.4
14.4
turnovers / game
15.7
52.4
points in paint / game
47.8

Rating Trend

TOR · CHA · 70 days
Toronto RaptorsCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 4−6
Dec 5, 2025at TORCHA 111 − 86
Nov 29, 2025at CHACHA 118 − 111
Nov 17, 2025at TORTOR 110 − 108
Apr 9, 2025at TORTOR 126 − 96
Mar 28, 2025at TORTOR 108 − 97
Oct 30, 2024at CHACHA 138 − 133
Mar 3, 2024at TORTOR 111 − 106
Feb 7, 2024at CHATOR 123 − 117
Dec 18, 2023at TORTOR 114 − 99
Dec 8, 2023at CHACHA 119 − 116

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jan 5vs ATL118 − 100W
Jan 3vs ATL134 − 117W
Dec 31, 2025vs DEN103 − 106L
Dec 29, 2025vs ORL107 − 106W
Dec 28, 2025vs GS141 − 127W
Dec 26, 2025at WSH117 − 138L
Dec 23, 2025at MIA112 − 91W
Dec 21, 2025at BKN81 − 96L
Dec 20, 2025vs BOS96 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025at MIL111 − 105W

CHA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jan 5at OKC124 − 97W
Jan 3at CHI112 − 99W
Jan 2at MIL121 − 122L
Dec 31, 2025vs GS125 − 132L
Dec 29, 2025vs MIL113 − 123L
Dec 26, 2025at ORL120 − 105W
Dec 23, 2025vs WSH126 − 109W
Dec 22, 2025at CLE132 − 139L
Dec 20, 2025at DET86 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025vs ATL133 − 126W