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Heat at Pacers

NBA · Saturday, Jan 10 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final MIA 99 – IND 123
← NBA / Jan 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA1827272799
IND36253824123
Team box
MIA·IND
36-92
field goals
44-98
4-30
3-pointers
17-40
23-29
free throws
18-22
51
rebounds
54
17
assists
37
19
turnovers
18
58
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Andrew NembhardIND292969
Tyler HerroMIA322174
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA251672
Micah PotterIND161440
Jarace WalkerIND301394
Bam AdebayoMIA251392

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +29
MIA +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 29 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 52%, IND 48% · Updated Jan 10

Expected margin
MIA by 1.6
Expected score
MIA 116.0 – 114.5 IND
Expected total
230.5
HeatThe matchupPacers
−109Our fair odds+109
116.0Expected points114.5
+0.09Power rating−0.22
120.1Points / game110.8
117.4Allowed / game119.5
46.9FG%44.4
36.63P%34.2
45.6Rebounds / game42.4
20−17Season record7−31
5−5Last 101−9
Jahmir Young · Terry Rozier
Vladislav GoldinOutBennedict Mathurin · Isaiah Jackson
Obi Toppin · Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · IND chance
Our model fair52.2%47.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat−10952%————
INDIndiana Pacers+10948%————
SpreadMIA by 1.6
MIAMiami Heat−1.6our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.5
Over230.5our total————
Under230.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 1.6 expected
Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%
← MIA wins byIND wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more44%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more30%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.5 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
GJohnny Furphystarted
FPascal Siakamstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·IND
Jan 6 at MIN
last game
Jan 8 at CHA
3 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 10, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIAJaime Jaquez Jr. · stomach; illnessQuestionable
Indiana Pacers
INDBennedict Mathurin · right thumb; sprainOut
INDIsaiah Jackson · n/a; concussionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDAndrew Nembhard · low back; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
MIA·IND
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
120.1
points / game
110.8
117.4
points allowed / game
119.5
20−17
season record
7−31
13−6
home record
5−15
7−11
away record
2−16
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
1−9
46.9
FG%
44.4
36.6
3P%
34.2
45.6
rebounds / game
42.4
28.7
assists / game
24.5
14.4
turnovers / game
14.1
54.9
points in paint / game
44.9

Rating Trend

MIA · IND · 73 days
Miami HeatIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 5−5
Dec 27, 2025at MIAMIA 142 − 116
Feb 28, 2025at MIAMIA 125 − 120
Jan 2, 2025at MIAIND 128 − 115
Nov 17, 2024at INDIND 119 − 110
Nov 15, 2024at INDMIA 124 − 111
Apr 7, 2024at INDIND 117 − 115
Dec 2, 2023at MIAIND 144 − 129
Nov 30, 2023at MIAMIA 142 − 132
Feb 8, 2023at MIAMIA 116 − 111
Dec 23, 2022at MIAIND 111 − 108

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jan 6at MIN94 − 122L
Jan 4vs NO125 − 106W
Jan 3vs MIN115 − 125L
Jan 1at DET118 − 112W
Dec 29, 2025vs DEN147 − 123W
Dec 27, 2025vs IND142 − 116W
Dec 26, 2025at ATL126 − 111W
Dec 23, 2025vs TOR91 − 112L
Dec 21, 2025at NY125 − 132L
Dec 19, 2025at BOS116 − 129L

IND · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Jan 8at CHA114 − 112W
Jan 6vs CLE116 − 120L
Jan 4at ORL127 − 135L
Jan 2vs SA113 − 123L
Dec 31, 2025vs ORL110 − 112L
Dec 29, 2025at HOU119 − 126L
Dec 27, 2025at MIA116 − 142L
Dec 26, 2025vs BOS122 − 140L
Dec 23, 2025vs MIL94 − 111L
Dec 22, 2025at BOS95 − 103L