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Celtics at Heat

NBA · Thursday, Jan 15 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final BOS 119 – MIA 114
← NBA / Jan 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS25292936119
MIA36282921114
Team box
BOS·MIA
41-91
field goals
39-87
13-39
3-pointers
15-42
24-25
free throws
21-27
51
rebounds
40
22
assists
25
13
turnovers
10
50
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anfernee SimonsBOS343944
Jaylen BrownBOS302770
Norman PowellMIA322632
Bam AdebayoMIA332245
Tyler HerroMIA312223
Sam HauserBOS291733

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +19
BOS +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 19 · BOS 6lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 62%, MIA 38% · Updated Jan 15

Expected margin
BOS by 4.3
Expected score
BOS 114.0 – 109.7 MIA
Expected total
223.7
CelticsThe matchupHeat
−163Our fair odds+163
114.0Expected points109.7
+0.75Power rating+0.02
116.6Points / game119.5
110.1Allowed / game117.8
47.5FG%47.0
36.93P%36.3
44.5Rebounds / game45.5
24−15Season record21−19
6−4Last 106−4
Jayson Tatum · Josh MinottOutDavion Mitchell · Jahmir Young
Jaime Jaquez Jr. · Myron Gardner
Terry Rozier

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · MIA chance
Our model fair62.0%38.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−16362%————
MIAMiami Heat+16338%————
SpreadBOS by 4.3
BOSBoston Celtics−4.3our margin————
MIAMiami Heat+4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.7
Over223.7our total————
Under223.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 4.3 expected
Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%
← BOS wins byMIA wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more52%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more37%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.7 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.570%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·MIA
Jan 12 at IND
last game
Jan 13 vs PHX
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 15, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSJosh Minott · left ankle; sprainOut
Miami Heat
MIADavion Mitchell · left shoulder; contusionOut
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAJaime Jaquez Jr. · left knee; sorenessOut
MIAMyron Gardner · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
BOS·MIA
+0.75
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
116.6
points / game
119.5
110.1
points allowed / game
117.8
24−15
season record
21−19
12−7
home record
14−6
12−8
away record
7−13
L2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
47.5
FG%
47.0
36.9
3P%
36.3
44.5
rebounds / game
45.5
23.8
assists / game
28.6
11.8
turnovers / game
14.7
44.3
points in paint / game
55.0

Rating Trend

BOS · MIA · 78 days
Boston CelticsMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 2−8
Dec 19, 2025at BOSBOS 129 − 116
Apr 2, 2025at BOSMIA 124 − 103
Mar 14, 2025at MIABOS 103 − 91
Feb 10, 2025at MIABOS 103 − 85
Dec 2, 2024at BOSBOS 108 − 89
May 1, 2024at BOSBOS 118 − 84post
Apr 29, 2024at MIABOS 102 − 88post
Apr 27, 2024at MIABOS 104 − 84post
Apr 24, 2024at BOSMIA 111 − 101post
Apr 21, 2024at BOSBOS 114 − 94post

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jan 12at IND96 − 98L
Jan 10vs SA95 − 100L
Jan 9vs TOR125 − 117W
Jan 7vs DEN110 − 114L
Jan 5vs CHI115 − 101W
Jan 3at LAC146 − 115W
Jan 1at SAC120 − 106W
Dec 30, 2025at UTAH129 − 119W
Dec 28, 2025at POR108 − 114L
Dec 26, 2025at IND140 − 122W

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 13vs PHX127 − 121W
Jan 11at OKC112 − 124L
Jan 10at IND99 − 123L
Jan 6at MIN94 − 122L
Jan 4vs NO125 − 106W
Jan 3vs MIN115 − 125L
Jan 1at DET118 − 112W
Dec 29, 2025vs DEN147 − 123W
Dec 27, 2025vs IND142 − 116W
Dec 26, 2025at ATL126 − 111W