bayesRatings

Suns at Heat

NBA · Tuesday, Jan 13 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final PHX 121 – MIA 127
← NBA / Jan 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX28263829121
MIA36352135127
Team box
PHX·MIA
44-102
field goals
48-92
14-48
3-pointers
13-38
19-20
free throws
18-22
48
rebounds
41
22
assists
28
13
turnovers
12
54
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Bam AdebayoMIA322994
Norman PowellMIA322753
Grayson AllenPHX272541
Dillon BrooksPHX362540
Devin BookerPHX402499
Tyler HerroMIA392323

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +20
PHX +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 20 · PHX 6lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 47%, MIA 53% · Updated Jan 13

Expected margin
MIA by 1.4
Expected score
MIA 114.4 – 113.0 PHX
Expected total
227.3
SunsThe matchupHeat
+111Our fair odds−111
113.0Expected points114.4
+0.15Power rating+0.02
114.7Points / game119.4
111.8Allowed / game117.7
46.4FG%46.9
36.33P%36.4
43.5Rebounds / game45.6
24−15Season record20−19
8−2Last 105−5
Jalen Green · Jamaree BouyeaOutJahmir Young · Myron Gardner
Terry Rozier · Vladislav Goldin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · MIA chance
Our model fair47.5%52.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+11147%————
MIAMiami Heat−11153%————
SpreadMIA by 1.4
PHXPhoenix Suns+1.4our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.3
Over227.3our total————
Under227.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 1.4 expected
Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%
← PHX wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more44%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more30%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.3 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·MIA
Jan 11 vs WSH
last game
Jan 11 at OKC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 12, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXJamaree Bouyea · concussion protocolOut
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAMyron Gardner · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIANorman Powell · low back; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
PHX·MIA
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
114.7
points / game
119.4
111.8
points allowed / game
117.7
24−15
season record
20−19
14−5
home record
13−6
10−10
away record
7−13
W3
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
5−5
46.4
FG%
46.9
36.3
3P%
36.4
43.5
rebounds / game
45.6
25.5
assists / game
28.6
15.5
turnovers / game
14.7
45.3
points in paint / game
54.9

Rating Trend

PHX · MIA · 76 days
Phoenix SunsMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIA 4−4
Dec 7, 2024at MIAMIA 121 − 111
Nov 6, 2024at PHXPHX 115 − 112
Jan 29, 2024at MIAPHX 118 − 105
Jan 5, 2024at PHXPHX 113 − 97
Jan 6, 2023at PHXMIA 104 − 96
Nov 14, 2022at MIAMIA 113 − 112
Mar 9, 2022at MIAPHX 111 − 90
Jan 8, 2022at PHXMIA 123 − 100

PHX · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Jan 11vs WSH112 − 93W
Jan 9vs NY112 − 107W
Jan 7at MEM117 − 98W
Jan 5at HOU97 − 100L
Jan 4vs OKC108 − 105W
Jan 2vs SAC129 − 102W
Dec 31, 2025at CLE113 − 129L
Dec 29, 2025at WSH115 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025at NO123 − 114W
Dec 26, 2025at NO115 − 108W

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jan 11at OKC112 − 124L
Jan 10at IND99 − 123L
Jan 6at MIN94 − 122L
Jan 4vs NO125 − 106W
Jan 3vs MIN115 − 125L
Jan 1at DET118 − 112W
Dec 29, 2025vs DEN147 − 123W
Dec 27, 2025vs IND142 − 116W
Dec 26, 2025at ATL126 − 111W
Dec 23, 2025vs TOR91 − 112L