bayesRatings

Magic at Grizzlies

NBA · Sunday, Jan 18 · 11:00 AM CT · The O2 · neutral site · Final ORL 109 – MEM 126
← NBA / Jan 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL23302828109
MEM40322826126
Team box
ORL·MEM
42-95
field goals
48-91
10-33
3-pointers
13-35
15-16
free throws
17-25
42
rebounds
42
30
assists
31
17
turnovers
12
60
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ja MorantMEM2824513
Jock LandaleMEM232183
Anthony BlackORL371926
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL331874
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM301750
Paolo BancheroORL361689

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +33
ORL +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 33 · ORL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 51%, MEM 49% · Updated Jan 18

Expected margin
ORL by 0.4
Expected score
ORL 112.7 – 112.2 MEM
Expected total
224.9
MagicThe matchupGrizzlies
−105Our fair odds+105
112.7Expected points112.2
+0.04Power rating−0.01
116.3Points / game114.8
114.9Allowed / game116.2
46.8FG%45.4
33.53P%34.8
44.8Rebounds / game46.4
23−18Season record17−23
6−4Last 103−7
Colin Castleton · Jalen Suggs
Jett Howard · Moritz WagnerOutBrandon Clarke · Jahmai Mashack
Javon Small · Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Scotty Pippen Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · MEM chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic−10551%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+10549%————
SpreadORL by 0.4
ORLOrlando Magic−0.4our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.9
Over224.9our total————
Under224.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 0.4 expected
Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%
← ORL wins byMEM wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more41%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more27%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.9 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.570%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.531%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FFranz Wagnerstarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Memphis Grizzlies
GJa Morantstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FSanti Aldamastarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·MEM
Jan 15 vs MEM
last game
Jan 15 at ORL
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 18, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · left thumb; fractureOut
ORLJalen Suggs · right knee; mcl contusionOut
ORLJett Howard · n/a; illnessOut
ORLMoritz Wagner · left knee; injury managementOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · g league - two-wayOut
MEMJavon Small · g league - two-wayOut
MEMOlivier-Maxence Prosper · g league - two-wayOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; stress reactionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
ORL·MEM
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
116.3
points / game
114.8
114.9
points allowed / game
116.2
23−18
season record
17−23
14−7
home record
9−11
9−11
away record
8−12
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
3−7
46.8
FG%
45.4
33.5
3P%
34.8
44.8
rebounds / game
46.4
26.3
assists / game
29.0
14.1
turnovers / game
15.4
54.2
points in paint / game
49.2

Rating Trend

ORL · MEM · 81 days
Orlando MagicMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MEM 7−2
Jan 15at ORLORL 118 − 111
Feb 21, 2025at ORLMEM 105 − 104
Oct 26, 2024at MEMMEM 124 − 111
Mar 30, 2024at ORLORL 118 − 88
Jan 26, 2024at MEMMEM 107 − 106
Mar 28, 2023at MEMMEM 113 − 108
Jan 5, 2023at ORLMEM 123 − 115
Mar 5, 2022at MEMMEM 124 − 96
Feb 5, 2022at ORLMEM 135 − 115

ORL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jan 15vs MEM118 − 111W
Jan 11vs NO128 − 118W
Jan 9vs PHI91 − 103L
Jan 7at BKN104 − 103W
Jan 6at WSH112 − 120L
Jan 4vs IND135 − 127W
Jan 2at CHI114 − 121L
Dec 31, 2025at IND112 − 110W
Dec 29, 2025at TOR106 − 107L
Dec 27, 2025vs DEN127 − 126W

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jan 15at ORL111 − 118L
Jan 11vs BKN103 − 98W
Jan 9vs OKC116 − 117L
Jan 7vs PHX98 − 117L
Jan 6vs SA106 − 105W
Jan 4at LAL114 − 120L
Jan 2at LAL121 − 128L
Dec 30, 2025vs PHI136 − 139L
Dec 28, 2025at WSH112 − 116L
Dec 26, 2025vs MIL125 − 104W